Market · 4 of 11 outcomes
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:50 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
13 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c | Yes | 50,000 | 9.5¢ | $6K | Proven+$4.09 per $100 · 1,073 bets |
| Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47 | Yes | 14,575 | 9.1¢ | $1.75K | Proven+$3.58 per $100 · 489 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 8,310 | 10.6¢ | $997 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,414 bets |
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | Yes | 5,471 | 1.0¢ | $657 | Proven+$5.25 per $100 · 3,129 bets |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | Yes | 2,411 | 13.5¢ | $289 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| Folletin0x08c8…1da2 | Yes | 2,342 | 13.7¢ | $281 | Proven+$5.44 per $100 · 712 bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | 1,485 | 12.7¢ | $178 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,246 bets |
| 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | 1,470 | 12.3¢ | $176 | Positive+$7.37 per $100 · 1,338 bets |
| tttt1230xdf40…38b8 | No | 200 | 89.0¢ | $176 | Positive+$2.19 per $100 · 3,002 bets |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | No | 200 | 87.7¢ | $176 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| BobbyBakedBeans0x8728…0882 | Yes | 1,152 | 13.5¢ | $138 | — |
| IV70x5d05…aee5 | Yes | 1,000 | 13.0¢ | $120 | — |
| wing12340x02ae…bad5 | Yes | 920 | 11.7¢ | $110 | Losing−$12.89 per $100 · 792 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 800 | 2.0¢ | $96 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 107 | 86.2¢ | $94 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| slporc20xdf52…b944 | Yes | 667 | 15.5¢ | $80 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 545 | 6.7¢ | $65 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| RadioCCOD0x66f9…adb9 | Yes | 501 | 16.9¢ | $60 | Proven+$94.70 per $100 · 198 bets |
| trkbk20x09c0…305a | Yes | 500 | 13.0¢ | $60 | Positive+$1.14 per $100 · 124 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 500 | 9.1¢ | $60 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,103 bets |
| 0xcbdf…6a49 | Yes | 489 | 13.5¢ | $59 | New29 settled bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 60 | 86.6¢ | $53 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,477 bets |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | No | 51 | 88.3¢ | $45 | — |
| algo1680x2cfe…e4de | Yes | 368 | 13.4¢ | $44 | Losing−$3.01 per $100 · 5,266 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 48 | 88.0¢ | $42 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 338 | 0.0¢ | $41 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,355 bets |
| jq1230x9ad6…cc62 | Yes | 338 | 13.7¢ | $41 | — |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | 315 | 11.0¢ | $38 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,730 bets |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | Yes | 300 | 10.0¢ | $36 | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
| 1ppq0xe8a7…46c4 | No | 40 | 85.0¢ | $36 | — |
| spaceskeleton0x79d2…61ce | Yes | 249 | 13.0¢ | $30 | Losing−$15.24 per $100 · 214 bets |
| HerlihyM920x1970…398d | Yes | 229 | 15.0¢ | $27 | Proven+$8.37 per $100 · 538 bets |
| longtermgains0xebdc…bf08 | Yes | 220 | 14.5¢ | $26 | — |
| FrankyFourFingers0xcdbf…1926 | Yes | 200 | 16.0¢ | $24 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 197 | 10.0¢ | $24 | Losing−$2.63 per $100 · 123,481+ bets · updating |
| rx780x5fde…cbbe | No | 20 | 86.0¢ | $18 | — |
| BetterFish0xc412…592d | Yes | 143 | 6.0¢ | $17 | — |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 129 | 5.0¢ | $16 | Positive+$7.23 per $100 · 10,676 bets |
| LR10xad28…1601 | Yes | 126 | 7.3¢ | $15 | Positive+$2.84 per $100 · 1,226 bets |
| resilience260x16da…05c0 | No | 17 | 87.0¢ | $15 | — |
| nryy0xafbc…18c6 | No | 16 | 86.6¢ | $14 | — |
| JAMmer0x5114…f11c | Yes | 116 | 15.5¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xfb29…95ff | Yes | 110 | 13.5¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x91c7…b576 | Yes | 101 | 12.5¢ | $12 | Losing−$1.95 per $100 · 584 bets |
| NothingEverHappens120x407d…efcd | Yes | 94 | 13.5¢ | $11 | Proven+$4.99 per $100 · 294 bets |
| jennylulu20160xa19f…ddc2 | Yes | 94 | 5.0¢ | $11 | — |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | Yes | 87 | 10.0¢ | $10 | Proven+$2.20 per $100 · 1,792 bets |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | No | 11 | 84.6¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 44,557 bets |
| MispricedPaladin0xde88…144c | Yes | 75 | 11.0¢ | $9 | — |
| FishfulThinking6490x33c8…1495 | No | 10 | 84.5¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xaf05…33e2 | No | 10 | 88.0¢ | $9 | — |
| slime5670x2a0d…2eda | Yes | 63 | 16.5¢ | $8 | — |
| aljarreau0x5a75…beb3 | Yes | 50 | 13.3¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.33 per $100 · 105 bets |
| 0x61f2…e77a | No | 7 | 87.8¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.88 per $100 · 1,656 bets |
| 0x8328…935f | No | 6 | 83.0¢ | $5 | — |
| MasonsConqueredRome0x357e…2a0c | Yes | 40 | 10.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.92 per $100 · 1,137 bets |
| 0x820b…4638 | Yes | 37 | 13.7¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x26b0…b22d | Yes | 36 | 14.5¢ | $4 | — |
| DANTOR1230xbeda…f2b4 | Yes | 33 | 15.5¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x3c88…3c17 | Yes | 31 | 16.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x4aab…38cc | No | 4 | 89.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.44 per $100 · 10,164 bets |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 30 | 7.4¢ | $4 | — |
| BigTailFOX0x0cea…8853 | No | 4 | 90.0¢ | $3 | — |
| yukonboi0x250e…e864 | Yes | 27 | 14.0¢ | $3 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 568 bets |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 26 | 9.1¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| human.bean0x39fd…849e | Yes | 24 | 5.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Sm10x215a…6bcd | Yes | 24 | 12.6¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x3e3d…bbfa | No | 3 | 87.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 2 | 85.8¢ | $2 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| 0xc7ff…1326 | No | 2 | 84.0¢ | $2 | — |
| bulbnbob0x77b5…9170 | No | 2 | 85.0¢ | $1 | — |
| tonnysoprano0xe3a0…f1f4 | No | 1 | 86.5¢ | $1 | — |
| mvmca16110x3744…d422 | No | 1 | 87.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Valouass0x6e36…5374 | No | 1 | 88.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.67 per $100 · 1,644 bets |
| 0x4e72…ffb9 | No | 1 | 89.4¢ | $1 | — |
| poshanka0x99d4…c2c6 | No | 1 | 86.4¢ | $1 | — |
| itsjustcheddar0x2a31…f2f0 | No | 0 | 83.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.03 per $100 · 20,323 bets |
| newtonsladel50x9646…d98d | No | 0 | 82.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x82ae…2890 | No | 0 | 85.0¢ | $0 | — |
| bigbrainchad0x113f…ae4d | No | 0 | 88.4¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 85.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,694 bets |
| dicen250x1a38…d8c3 | No | 0 | 86.0¢ | $0 | — |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | No | 0 | 87.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.43 per $100 · 14,399 bets |
| newtonsladel40xba9d…b1f7 | No | 0 | 82.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 84.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 0 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 692 events · $32.4M in play
Exactly one of this event's 11 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.