Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:26 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 615 events · $32M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
18 proven traders are on Yes, 12 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lastminwin0xb5d1…6e35 | Yes | 64,422 | 67.7¢ | $44.5K | New6 settled bets |
| SlavaUkraini0xe899…0899 | Yes | 57,469 | 68.2¢ | $39.7K | Proven+$4.28 per $100 · 296 bets |
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | No | 78,237 | 34.4¢ | $24.3K | Proven+$3.83 per $100 · 728 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 58,279 | 33.1¢ | $18.1K | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,791 bets |
| bernardbulletin0x1c14…0869 | Yes | 19,580 | 69.9¢ | $13.5K | Proven+$11.16 per $100 · 2,363 bets |
| BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c | Yes | 17,852 | 72.0¢ | $12.3K | Proven+$3.66 per $100 · 1,055 bets |
| apmt0x328d…f7a9 | Yes | 16,350 | 64.9¢ | $11.3K | Proven+$9.98 per $100 · 114 bets |
| botbot0x226b…cad6 | No | 30,000 | 28.1¢ | $9.3K | Proven+$8.32 per $100 · 1,117 bets |
| Scalpoor0x8b36…a393 | Yes | 12,161 | 63.8¢ | $8.39K | New49 settled bets |
| alfabetica0x116a…6226 | Yes | 12,100 | 71.3¢ | $8.35K | New0 settled bets |
| jacksonpark0x3b6f…6b78 | Yes | 10,500 | 69.1¢ | $7.24K | — |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 9,766 | 70.5¢ | $6.74K | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
| EducatedGuess694200xed49…8783 | Yes | 9,289 | 59.4¢ | $6.41K | New84 settled bets |
| 0xf826…ad9e | Yes | 9,010 | 62.0¢ | $6.22K | New7 settled bets |
| BiDiFakePolls0xd24b…ef76 | Yes | 9,000 | 72.1¢ | $6.21K | Proven+$13.35 per $100 · 374 bets |
| tunatyler0xf1f9…1245 | Yes | 7,500 | 64.1¢ | $5.17K | Proven+$6.66 per $100 · 2,308 bets |
| mountaindewd0x944e…8c94 | No | 16,000 | 29.7¢ | $4.96K | Proven+$9.46 per $100 · 748 bets |
| 0xc79d…0203 | Yes | 6,849 | 73.8¢ | $4.73K | New30 settled bets |
| bnbaltz0x8181…a32c | Yes | 6,344 | 71.8¢ | $4.38K | — |
| l3t00xd14a…a8ad | Yes | 6,300 | 69.4¢ | $4.35K | Proven+$6.10 per $100 · 109 bets |
| thevicentesilva0x2a48…72ac | Yes | 6,126 | 66.2¢ | $4.23K | — |
| Yirmeyahu0x55f3…cada | Yes | 6,119 | 65.5¢ | $4.22K | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 157 bets |
| Snarfsnarfsnarf0x9536…7e50 | No | 13,499 | 32.3¢ | $4.18K | New3 settled bets |
| banspcltvecnmy0x6998…9ff2 | Yes | 5,954 | 67.2¢ | $4.11K | Proven+$9.22 per $100 · 252 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 12,773 | 30.0¢ | $3.96K | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| Arbguy0x53e5…6177 | No | 12,729 | 36.3¢ | $3.95K | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 1,106 bets |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | Yes | 5,713 | 69.5¢ | $3.94K | Proven+$2.20 per $100 · 1,792 bets |
| 0x9868…64b0 | Yes | 5,313 | 71.8¢ | $3.67K | — |
| ND10920x8f5e…6c1e | Yes | 5,110 | 67.9¢ | $3.53K | — |
| mrworldwide0x98d0…f14a | Yes | 5,014 | 70.9¢ | $3.46K | Proven+$8.95 per $100 · 1,841 bets |
| JSG30x0191…541d | Yes | 5,000 | 72.0¢ | $3.45K | New18 settled bets |
| Vespuccii0x712f…9fe6 | Yes | 5,000 | 71.0¢ | $3.45K | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 238 bets |
| plumbis0x77fb…266c | Yes | 5,000 | 71.2¢ | $3.45K | Proven+$3.38 per $100 · 136 bets |
| seal70x2b9d…adc0 | No | 10,960 | 36.7¢ | $3.4K | Proven+$9.63 per $100 · 898 bets |
| Sagand0xa181…ece8 | Yes | 4,867 | 72.7¢ | $3.36K | — |
| 0x1bed…6afa | Yes | 4,290 | 59.2¢ | $2.96K | — |
| nchgbhy0x57b0…76f4 | Yes | 3,523 | 71.9¢ | $2.43K | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| Folletin0x08c8…1da2 | Yes | 3,306 | 70.7¢ | $2.28K | Proven+$5.44 per $100 · 712 bets |
| JosephTrump0x97af…9bc6 | No | 7,069 | 31.4¢ | $2.19K | Positive+$1.25 per $100 · 470 bets |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | Yes | 2,936 | 70.8¢ | $2.03K | New60 settled bets |
| K1ngN0rth0x04ec…580f | Yes | 2,728 | 67.8¢ | $1.88K | Proven+$3.30 per $100 · 956 bets |
| GUINESS1230x2f26…0d8f | No | 6,033 | 30.9¢ | $1.87K | Losing−$2.11 per $100 · 28,108 bets |
| polymarketbetter0xa147…3fcc | Yes | 2,656 | 60.3¢ | $1.83K | Losing−$17.22 per $100 · 200 bets |
| AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92 | Yes | 2,484 | 66.9¢ | $1.71K | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 260 bets |
| ilikesmore990x68c5…38a1 | No | 5,496 | 33.2¢ | $1.7K | — |
| Zacceerie0xcadd…595c | Yes | 2,353 | 63.9¢ | $1.62K | — |
| chillballer0x6af7…5a6f | Yes | 2,323 | 73.8¢ | $1.6K | New89 settled bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 2,250 | 71.6¢ | $1.55K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| grio4j3232f3e30xab58…f788 | No | 5,000 | 26.0¢ | $1.55K | — |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | No | 5,000 | 29.0¢ | $1.55K | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| 0x43ab…a0ef | Yes | 2,106 | 57.0¢ | $1.45K | New94 settled bets |
| crayven0x2aac…dfad | Yes | 2,042 | 72.8¢ | $1.41K | Proven+$5.71 per $100 · 922 bets |
| jtradegbr0x2bc7…e411 | Yes | 2,000 | 72.8¢ | $1.38K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 2,136 bets |
| VvVvV0x4b2d…f0d4 | Yes | 2,000 | 69.0¢ | $1.38K | Losing−$1.49 per $100 · 308 bets |
| madmartigan50xdd15…4a07 | Yes | 2,000 | 62.9¢ | $1.38K | Positive+$14.42 per $100 · 209 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 2,000 | 73.0¢ | $1.38K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,059 bets |
| yeeTradez0x1181…9e90 | Yes | 2,000 | 67.6¢ | $1.38K | Losing−$1.63 per $100 · 203 bets |
| Rpzcz0x76f9…f701 | Yes | 1,918 | 73.8¢ | $1.32K | — |
| whispercatalyst0x460a…d738 | No | 4,054 | 30.1¢ | $1.26K | Break-even−$0.54 per $100 · 3,695 bets |
| TheFlats670xebf0…7c7e | Yes | 1,813 | 71.8¢ | $1.25K | — |
| G.Hchen0xdb97…eee8 | Yes | 1,800 | 74.2¢ | $1.24K | Proven+$9.18 per $100 · 691 bets |
| Pressie0x2325…ae85 | Yes | 1,515 | 66.9¢ | $1.05K | — |
| anciano0xa8b7…ee3c | Yes | 1,500 | 72.1¢ | $1.04K | Break-even−$0.07 per $100 · 6,243 bets |
| Hans3230x0f37…1410 | Yes | 1,443 | 65.6¢ | $996 | Break-even+$0.60 per $100 · 4,874 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | No | 3,155 | 29.6¢ | $978 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | No | 3,135 | 35.6¢ | $972 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,201 bets |
| username130xfa12…e785 | No | 3,084 | 36.3¢ | $956 | — |
| PK1230x6d65…3781 | No | 3,000 | 31.1¢ | $930 | Losing−$5.68 per $100 · 1,488 bets |
| kp123450xf0f7…8c0b | No | 2,523 | 28.5¢ | $782 | New16 settled bets |
| Saltyballs0xd46b…5dab | No | 2,263 | 32.9¢ | $701 | Proven+$7.59 per $100 · 920 bets |
| Trumped1000000x54d1…13f4 | No | 2,000 | 27.0¢ | $620 | Break-even+$0.13 per $100 · 2,857 bets |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | No | 2,000 | 26.1¢ | $620 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,726 bets |
| M8880x4344…f90d | No | 1,908 | 31.8¢ | $591 | Proven+$3.72 per $100 · 1,941 bets |
| crypto-basenji0x72f7…92f7 | No | 1,780 | 28.8¢ | $552 | Proven+$3.15 per $100 · 460 bets |
| 47Capital0xf29d…add3 | No | 1,695 | 27.8¢ | $525 | — |
| m1-2Ce40x21cf…0043 | No | 1,640 | 28.6¢ | $508 | New12 settled bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 1,556 | 32.2¢ | $482 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
| TaylorSchifff0xaa68…94a7 | No | 1,500 | 35.0¢ | $465 | Break-even−$0.39 per $100 · 1,115 bets |
| Javier777Milei0x2e61…19bd | No | 1,400 | 32.0¢ | $434 | Positive+$1.85 per $100 · 844 bets |
| probability0x74f1…16a8 | No | 1,378 | 35.1¢ | $427 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 6,373 bets |
| rexcom0xde09…dbde | No | 1,350 | 29.0¢ | $419 | — |
| israeli1230xee3e…1dc5 | No | 1,348 | 28.5¢ | $418 | — |
| eNakeVets0x3f3b…1d77 | No | 1,241 | 32.5¢ | $385 | Losing−$2.00 per $100 · 1,563 bets |
| JohnnyBlaze10xbccb…31e2 | No | 1,213 | 38.8¢ | $376 | — |
| pop0x6404…f250 | No | 1,200 | 41.0¢ | $372 | Proven+$2.06 per $100 · 351 bets |
| Vger0x4612…d79b | No | 1,094 | 32.9¢ | $339 | — |
| overfatting0xddea…1ec6 | No | 1,089 | 29.8¢ | $337 | New3 settled bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 1,012 | 30.5¢ | $314 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| boring9990x2140…5790 | No | 1,005 | 36.9¢ | $311 | Proven+$7.89 per $100 · 270 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 1,003 | 30.4¢ | $311 | Positive+$3.97 per $100 · 85,752+ bets · updating |
| resfeber0x814d…b842 | No | 1,000 | 30.8¢ | $310 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 2,420 bets |
| leCommissaire0x9238…b73e | No | 1,000 | 28.8¢ | $310 | Proven+$12.29 per $100 · 3,032 bets |
| MMH50x551d…4afe | No | 880 | 27.0¢ | $273 | New15 settled bets |
| Terrence19920xc094…c8d4 | No | 879 | 29.8¢ | $272 | Losing−$4.45 per $100 · 2,984 bets |
| Djibooty0x9690…f2d5 | No | 814 | 26.0¢ | $252 | — |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | No | 805 | 28.9¢ | $250 | — |
| Nicksypoo0xcbb5…5ed9 | No | 804 | 26.8¢ | $249 | Losing−$1.10 per $100 · 1,398 bets |
| asterley0xe762…064b | No | 720 | 28.8¢ | $223 | — |
| marksman0xb7d5…0789 | No | 714 | 36.9¢ | $221 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 8,118 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 711 | 31.0¢ | $220 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.