Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:55 UTC. Not financial advice.
5-Year Treasury Yield Peak · 2026 · 2 events · $48.8K in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 3,460 | 60.0¢ | $2.13K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| HDGB0x2e3e…abea | No | 2,021 | 45.7¢ | $1.24K | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 1,077 bets |
| GotGreenWood0x88d9…35c7 | No | 1,441 | 56.2¢ | $886 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 1,407 | 46.7¢ | $542 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| bigdickprick0x8735…46e5 | Yes | 1,350 | 44.6¢ | $520 | — |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 1,314 | 49.1¢ | $506 | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| Started-with-20-USD0x4388…5050 | Yes | 1,000 | 42.2¢ | $385 | — |
| alvin05070x77c0…a433 | Yes | 500 | 50.0¢ | $193 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | 413 | 40.3¢ | $159 | — |
| Vagabund970xa53b…4021 | Yes | 257 | 57.3¢ | $99 | — |
| Dapsy0x73d2…f9b7 | No | 150 | 57.0¢ | $92 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 227 | 46.7¢ | $88 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 200 | 43.2¢ | $77 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| financegaaaydog0xe2a3…8e01 | Yes | 150 | 41.8¢ | $58 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 121 | 44.2¢ | $46 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| mavsgseguritas0x5768…3bae | Yes | 91 | 51.0¢ | $35 | — |
| thomasstephen0xf14d…8fb2 | No | 51 | 61.0¢ | $31 | — |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | No | 50 | 50.0¢ | $31 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 45 | 62.0¢ | $28 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,254 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 44 | 60.3¢ | $27 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 65 | 40.0¢ | $25 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,042 bets |
| 0x3b30…100f | No | 30 | 63.2¢ | $18 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 29 | 59.2¢ | $18 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 45 | 53.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 26 | 55.0¢ | $16 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| yrnmv0xcc37…afb6 | Yes | 40 | 54.0¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | No | 24 | 62.0¢ | $15 | — |
| XAE12Archangel0xfbfd…0029 | No | 23 | 52.4¢ | $14 | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,715 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 20 | 59.0¢ | $12 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 31 | 45.4¢ | $12 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | 30 | 34.1¢ | $12 | — |
| Seer-U0x635d…43f8 | Yes | 30 | 41.2¢ | $12 | — |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | 30 | 44.5¢ | $12 | — |
| cpctbusiness0x8807…d08a | Yes | 27 | 55.0¢ | $11 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 25 | 52.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| Moalhashimi10x80c5…168a | Yes | 22 | 47.2¢ | $8 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | No | 13 | 61.0¢ | $8 | — |
| Varuh0xbb27…7d0b | Yes | 20 | 50.5¢ | $8 | — |
| zzmdc20x5354…50e7 | Yes | 20 | 52.0¢ | $8 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 20 | 43.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 10 | 34.0¢ | $6 | — |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 54.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$2.83 per $100 · 2,915 bets |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | No | 10 | 40.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x3f36…7a58 | Yes | 7 | 43.2¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xeb1a…21dc | Yes | 7 | 44.2¢ | $3 | — |
| ju5z0v5rpcf80xce50…88ae | No | 3 | 53.8¢ | $2 | — |
| doudouc0x74aa…2c3f | Yes | 3 | 28.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Agitator0xc4c6…63c1 | No | 2 | 63.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x3c08…0e0b | Yes | 2 | 42.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Blorpgore0x6e97…9ed1 | Yes | 2 | 47.2¢ | $1 | — |
| random-random1230xa1cc…fa62 | Yes | 2 | 56.2¢ | $1 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | No | 0 | 33.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 61.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| gavinfunda0xb924…0803 | No | 0 | 58.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Motown560x4761…9d09 | Yes | 0 | 54.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Hochul3250x5284…27f5 | Yes | 0 | 28.2¢ | $0 | — |
| gfdgfvfvssdd0x84bb…1477 | Yes | 0 | 46.0¢ | $0 | — |
| fulanisudanese0xc0ba…e0a0 | Yes | 0 | 54.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 28.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.