Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:55 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cookedquail0xff06…2f60 | Yes | 3,725 | 85.6¢ | $3.27K | Proven+$43.19 per $100 · 119 bets |
| DW10x8041…fc83 | Yes | 750 | 87.0¢ | $658 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| HDGB0x2e3e…abea |
| No |
| 4,440 |
| 10.3¢ |
| $546 |
| Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 1,077 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 474 | 86.3¢ | $416 | — |
| title10xbe74…a70e | Yes | 367 | 81.3¢ | $322 | Positive+$1.92 per $100 · 7,460 bets |
| plytest20x08b4…624e | Yes | 357 | 88.7¢ | $313 | — |
| ply-top3-clost-twet0x0b4c…4277 | Yes | 357 | 88.7¢ | $313 | — |
| 0x440e…4907 | Yes | 221 | 61.2¢ | $194 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 210 | 87.8¢ | $184 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| bodoh0x1e8e…0cc4 | Yes | 200 | 87.8¢ | $175 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 143 | 89.3¢ | $125 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,042 bets |
| funnyday0xd727…ecce | Yes | 100 | 81.0¢ | $88 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 11,345 bets |
| commeowder0xd06f…d4a6 | No | 617 | 13.5¢ | $76 | Proven+$3.25 per $100 · 2,064 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 524 | 11.8¢ | $64 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| alamedamemola0x037b…a36f | Yes | 59 | 89.2¢ | $52 | — |
| rocky420160x8d88…1e28 | No | 383 | 14.0¢ | $47 | Break-even−$0.49 per $100 · 11,002 bets |
| GotGreenWood0x88d9…35c7 | Yes | 53 | 87.5¢ | $47 | — |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | Yes | 52 | 87.8¢ | $46 | — |
| Agecanonix0xe068…c5ea | Yes | 50 | 90.0¢ | $44 | — |
| mavsgseguritas0x5768…3bae | Yes | 43 | 88.0¢ | $37 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 40 | 78.1¢ | $35 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| financegaaaydog0xe2a3…8e01 | Yes | 36 | 86.0¢ | $31 | — |
| groth0x71ab…f015 | No | 236 | 21.0¢ | $29 | Proven+$20.70 per $100 · 539 bets |
| c2comet0x0446…005c | Yes | 24 | 82.7¢ | $21 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 150 | 16.3¢ | $18 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 149 | 11.5¢ | $18 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 19 | 85.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 0x7da9…5741 | Yes | 15 | 69.8¢ | $13 | — |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 100 | 15.9¢ | $12 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 100 | 31.0¢ | $12 | — |
| PredictionMMayr0x8f9d…5e06 | No | 79 | 12.5¢ | $10 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 10 | 88.9¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| bc5f76A21059fA5536c3C0xb6d8…b372 | Yes | 10 | 83.0¢ | $9 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 68 | 16.2¢ | $8 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 59 | 11.5¢ | $7 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| 0x12b3…e104 | No | 56 | 22.9¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xa286…ea95 | No | 56 | 9.5¢ | $7 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 8 | 85.8¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 5 | 66.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | Yes | 5 | 91.0¢ | $4 | — |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | No | 30 | 12.1¢ | $4 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 30 | 16.5¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 28 | 27.8¢ | $3 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | No | 26 | 19.8¢ | $3 | — |
| Blorpgore0x6e97…9ed1 | Yes | 3 | 84.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | No | 20 | 40.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x57e7…84e9 | No | 20 | 23.9¢ | $2 | Losing−$3.66 per $100 · 10,324 bets |
| VenomTrade0x27ab…1f86 | No | 18 | 23.9¢ | $2 | — |
| Agitator0xc4c6…63c1 | No | 16 | 13.3¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x65a2…6950 | No | 14 | 23.4¢ | $2 | — |
| trader-9b7793990x9b77…53cd | No | 13 | 23.4¢ | $2 | — |
| cd30gfu530p00xfd5a…aa7a | No | 12 | 24.1¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 1,176 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 11 | 42.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 11 | 17.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 12.4¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,249 bets |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 10 | 22.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 4,786 bets |
| Seer-U0x635d…43f8 | No | 10 | 12.5¢ | $1 | — |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | No | 10 | 21.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 12.1¢ | $1 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 10 | 12.1¢ | $1 | — |
| gfdgfvfvssdd0x84bb…1477 | Yes | 1 | 87.9¢ | $1 | — |
| MGSIV0x10ff…de16 | Yes | 1 | 81.8¢ | $1 | — |
| osmych0x7008…2fdd | Yes | 1 | 84.7¢ | $1 | — |
| random-random1230xa1cc…fa62 | Yes | 1 | 89.5¢ | $1 | — |
| superaiapi0xd04e…122e | No | 8 | 14.8¢ | $1 | — |
| brra0x9435…91fd | Yes | 1 | 91.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Welcome20260x1073…d8ba | No | 3 | 33.1¢ | $0 | — |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | No | 3 | 61.2¢ | $0 | — |
| lifeisahighway0x6a5a…ac7d | No | 2 | 19.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xbada…d874 | No | 1 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x40c7…b1e8 | No | 0 | 26.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xca75…0a64 | No | 0 | 17.2¢ | $0 | — |
| nanioto0x53b3…7f9a | No | 0 | 35.1¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 1 shares each side · Show
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5-Year Treasury Yield Peak · 2026 · 2 events · $48.8K in play