Market · 2 of 15 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:34 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDGB0x2e3e…abea | No | 404 | 74.5¢ | $382 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 1,077 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 334 | 60.0¢ | $315 | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 200 | 84.7¢ | $189 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| Dapsy0x73d2…f9b7 | No | 34 | 57.0¢ | $32 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 220 | 11.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 10 | 83.2¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 151 | 17.1¢ | $8 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| stanmktmaker0xf0ce…ee0b | Yes | 150 | 11.8¢ | $8 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 88 | 26.9¢ | $5 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 81 | 9.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| shoobadooba180x2d6c…e3f5 | Yes | 60 | 27.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 58 | 22.6¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | 30 | 26.0¢ | $2 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 18.0¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Vagabund970xa53b…4021 | Yes | 25 | 43.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ju5z0v5rpcf80xce50…88ae | No | 1 | 86.5¢ | $1 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 20 | 16.0¢ | $1 | — |
| misha-d10x040a…118d | Yes | 20 | 16.7¢ | $1 | — |
| GotGreenWood0x88d9…35c7 | Yes | 20 | 26.0¢ | $1 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 11 | 47.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 10 | 31.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| 387478740x685a…2f06 | Yes | 5 | 15.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 2 | 8.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,584 bets |
| nanioto0x53b3…7f9a | Yes | 0 | 46.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 0 | 11.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 0 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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5-Year Treasury Yield Peak · 2026 · 2 events · $48.8K in play