Market · 3 of 15 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:45 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 1,296 | 90.5¢ | $1.24K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| 0xd4d3…1b0b | No | 122 | 83.0¢ | $116 | — |
| misha-d10x040a…118d | No | 20 | 80.3¢ | $19 | — |
| Agecanonix0xe068…c5ea | No | 20 | 96.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 363 | 24.2¢ | $17 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,584 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 273 | 25.2¢ | $13 | — |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | No | 10 | 77.0¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 9,059 bets |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | No | 10 | 77.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x51ae…ce30 | Yes | 172 | 5.6¢ | $8 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 122 | 6.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | No | 5 | 79.0¢ | $5 | — |
| trader-adb515850xadb5…4d50 | No | 5 | 66.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 100 | 32.0¢ | $5 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 84 | 21.4¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| mavsgseguritas0x5768…3bae | Yes | 40 | 5.3¢ | $2 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 40 | 6.4¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0xbbf6…7de7 | Yes | 36 | 6.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xe9c6…e77d | Yes | 30 | 34.1¢ | $1 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 25 | 3.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,521 bets |
| 73da497ba088b80xf96d…4b79 | Yes | 25 | 21.0¢ | $1 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 1 | 82.8¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 20 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | Yes | 20 | 32.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 20 | 10.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xeb53…7925 | Yes | 20 | 21.0¢ | $1 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 16 | 32.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | 14 | 11.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfsadfddd0x0be6…caa6 | Yes | 10 | 6.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 7,880 bets |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | Yes | 10 | 6.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 4,786 bets |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 10 | 6.3¢ | $0 | — |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | Yes | 10 | 6.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| wheatherman0xebf0…30e6 | Yes | 10 | 23.0¢ | $0 | — |
| G24L80x8a51…51a2 | Yes | 9 | 21.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb90x6891…6bb9 | Yes | 6 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 0 | 66.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| HDGB0x2e3e…abea | No | 0 | 64.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 1,077 bets |
| fixedincome0xb904…00dd | Yes | 3 | 37.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc5da…5f86 | No | 0 | 97.1¢ | $0 | — |
| highfiveHQ0x5c91…5ccc | No | 0 | 95.1¢ | $0 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 0 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| Pol7StrategyBuilder0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | 0 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
| napamen0x8494…814a | Yes | 0 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
5-Year Treasury Yield Peak · 2026 · 2 events · $48.8K in play