Market · 3 of 15 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 01:21 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 707 | 90.5¢ | $675 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| HDGB0x2e3e…abea | No | 547 | 79.1¢ | $522 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 1,077 bets |
| BornAgain260x978e…80bc | No | 100 | 94.3¢ | $96 | — |
| Ethereal0080xbf46…7ecf | No | 66 | 90.4¢ | $63 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 25 | 95.2¢ | $24 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 464 | 19.8¢ | $21 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 11 | 80.4¢ | $11 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 203 | 8.5¢ | $9 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 164 | 13.3¢ | $7 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 5 | 76.0¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 102 | 10.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | 100 | 5.5¢ | $5 | — |
| ju5z0v5rpcf80xce50…88ae | No | 3 | 87.5¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | Yes | 70 | 6.6¢ | $3 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 61 | 35.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| 0xbbf6…7de7 | Yes | 57 | 5.3¢ | $3 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 51 | 6.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 40 | 23.5¢ | $2 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 40 | 10.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | 30 | 34.0¢ | $1 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 25 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| misha-d10x040a…118d | Yes | 20 | 50.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 20 | 24.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 387478740x685a…2f06 | Yes | 5 | 5.0¢ | $0 | — |
| commeowder0xd06f…d4a6 | Yes | 5 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.25 per $100 · 2,064 bets |
| wheatherman0xebf0…30e6 | Yes | 4 | 24.0¢ | $0 | — |
| just-bettor0xa742…9856 | Yes | 3 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Bikesarethebest0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | 1 | 8.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.92 per $100 · 12,041 bets |
| 0x6196…6208 | No | 0 | 80.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 0 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
5-Year Treasury Yield Peak · 2026 · 2 events · $48.8K in play