Market · 6 of 15 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:25 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| commeowder0xd06f…d4a6 | No | 971 | 93.7¢ | $938 | Proven+$3.25 per $100 · 2,064 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 245 | 95.5¢ | $237 | — |
| TheForeseer0xdac1…7249 | No | 25 | 96.4¢ | $24 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 476 | 4.5¢ | $16 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,044 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 145 | 6.2¢ | $5 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| Touge0x1c44…6c6b | Yes | 103 | 3.6¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.93 per $100 · 298 bets |
| 0xd5cd…e2be | Yes | 90 | 4.4¢ | $3 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 86 | 13.5¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 77 | 10.3¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.67 per $100 · 123,278+ bets · updating |
| wheatherman0xebf0…30e6 | Yes | 60 | 31.5¢ | $2 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 50 | 3.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| GotGreenWood0x88d9…35c7 | Yes | 50 | 4.5¢ | $2 | — |
| b570x4865…904d | No | 2 | 92.4¢ | $2 | — |
| romanew-crypto0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | 38 | 9.1¢ | $1 | — |
| deSora0x6eae…1916 | No | 1 | 98.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$2.54 per $100 · 2,328 bets |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | Yes | 20 | 42.0¢ | $1 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 20 | 44.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 20 | 2.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| Hochul3250x5284…27f5 | Yes | 6 | 44.0¢ | $0 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 3 | 5.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| rocky420140xbb9f…557b | No | 0 | 96.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 95.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| smarterstrat0xe550…6f6e | No | 0 | 91.0¢ | $0 | — |
| fastandfudurious0x305d…c253 | Yes | 0 | 46.0¢ | $0 | — |
| richyee0xcdf5…e344 | Yes | 0 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | Yes | 0 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
5-Year Treasury Yield Peak · 2026 · 2 events · $48.8K in play