Market · 9 of 15 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 01:59 UTC. Not financial advice.
5-Year Treasury Yield Peak · 2026 · 2 events · $48.8K in play
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| commeowder0xd06f…d4a6 | No | 2,929 | 95.6¢ | $2.88K | Proven+$3.25 per $100 · 2,064 bets |
| KTKK0x7e01…63be | No | 600 | 9.3¢ | $590 | Positive |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 0xbada…d874 | No | 186 | 84.1¢ | $183 | — |
| hbvad0x0f98…605a | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| vladimirlennon0x3e31…e6d3 | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| gregnanny0x4083…05e5 | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| 1000.and.1.more.story0x5bb7…76ab | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| greta3760x7413…77b1 | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| eepybirb0x8f2a…b232 | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| diddydid0xc85c…36c7 | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | No | 51 | 77.0¢ | $50 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| Gabriela0xe824…8644 | No | 50 | 91.0¢ | $49 | — |
| explorer2210x7fa5…7621 | No | 37 | 49.2¢ | $37 | — |
| 0x1411…2410 | No | 31 | 82.4¢ | $31 | — |
| pizdi.bolyu0x27b9…90d0 | No | 26 | 89.0¢ | $26 | — |
| kotyakayebaka0xefe9…b8ec | No | 26 | 89.0¢ | $26 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 22 | 86.6¢ | $21 | — |
| alijbee0x1874…594f | No | 20 | 75.4¢ | $20 | Proven+$3.99 per $100 · 259 bets |
| holylocke0x6dbb…75b6 | No | 20 | 89.0¢ | $20 | — |
| changeover0x45f0…4435 | No | 12 | 65.0¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x0d62…27e0 | No | 11 | 44.0¢ | $11 | Proven+$5.78 per $100 · 301 bets |
| TLOP0xb216…05e3 | No | 11 | 92.1¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xac38…c565 | Yes | 629 | 7.2¢ | $11 | — |
| singaporesling0xfa8f…d61b | Yes | 627 | 88.3¢ | $11 | Losing−$19.40 per $100 · 617 bets |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | No | 10 | 79.3¢ | $10 | — |
| kirby260xa0d3…5b5e | No | 10 | 85.8¢ | $10 | Losing−$6.53 per $100 · 3,226 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 577 | 12.1¢ | $10 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 9 | 97.7¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | No | 7 | 8.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | Yes | 364 | 1.7¢ | $6 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| 65sfds0x783e…5a19 | No | 6 | 82.0¢ | $6 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 324 | 9.5¢ | $6 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,254 bets |
| Teshub0xa5d3…a6c6 | No | 5 | 93.3¢ | $5 | Proven+$31.54 per $100 · 160 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 236 | 8.3¢ | $4 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,033 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 212 | 11.2¢ | $4 | Losing−$4.46 per $100 · 1,422 bets |
| rocky420140xbb9f…557b | Yes | 202 | 4.8¢ | $3 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 139 | 14.0¢ | $2 | — |
| akunai0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | 130 | 0.7¢ | $2 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 120 | 9.7¢ | $2 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 117 | 8.6¢ | $2 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 96 | 3.1¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| barenverge0x4eb6…5e8a | No | 2 | 53.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | Yes | 90 | 4.5¢ | $2 | — |
| vale.glez0x70fc…88c1 | No | 2 | 67.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x2408…bc8a | No | 1 | 55.0¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 71 | 8.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 67 | 27.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| Cassandra-Unchained0x4e48…a96d | No | 1 | 94.3¢ | $1 | — |
| icariam060x9592…a8fd | Yes | 50 | 14.5¢ | $1 | — |
| omnibus-00c8ef0x00c8…9ccd | Yes | 47 | 35.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.32 per $100 · 15,729 bets |
| misha-d10x040a…118d | Yes | 45 | 2.5¢ | $1 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 44 | 7.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| TerranSupremacy0x4916…f56f | Yes | 40 | 59.5¢ | $1 | — |
| hitfar0x16b4…168f | No | 1 | 44.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Faustinor0xf139…dc51 | Yes | 30 | 49.3¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 6.5¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| mevv0x61aa…ff6f | Yes | 21 | 44.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf0c0…b893 | Yes | 20 | 51.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734.0x843c…0734 | Yes | 18 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 25oodksmsss090x3bef…f04e | No | 0 | 23.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd064…2704 | No | 0 | 68.0¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 10 | 9.1¢ | $0 | — |
| ResolvedMarkets0x4109…ad6b | Yes | 10 | 4.1¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdfasdf340x48c5…10fc | Yes | 10 | 9.1¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdf111120xaf53…ca3b | Yes | 10 | 9.1¢ | $0 | — |
| dddab110xced1…d7cd | Yes | 10 | 9.6¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdddd44120xe9cd…be3f | Yes | 9 | 9.1¢ | $0 | — |
| BobbyBakedBeans0x8728…0882 | Yes | 8 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| dhfhhfjf0x333f…3cd6 | Yes | 5 | 37.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 26lkkdasdsa0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | 5 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| NewsGurus0xc278…a116 | Yes | 5 | 56.0¢ | $0 | — |
| speed-70xda89…f562 | Yes | 5 | 46.0¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdf1110xe2e3…5897 | Yes | 4 | 9.1¢ | $0 | — |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | No | 0 | 92.5¢ | $0 | — |
| DianePerryi0xe6e6…da66 | Yes | 3 | 95.0¢ | $0 | — |
| XAE12Archangel0xfbfd…0029 | Yes | 3 | 68.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,715 bets |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | No | 0 | 89.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x504a…5c63 | Yes | 2 | 44.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | 2 | 8.1¢ | $0 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 2 | 8.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| 0xa6c0…dd68 | Yes | 2 | 90.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe27e…a9d0 | Yes | 1 | 53.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Tomer120xb442…bed7 | Yes | 1 | 94.0¢ | $0 | — |
| crn10x41b7…4ff3 | Yes | 1 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| badcar0x024e…8fa1 | No | 0 | 85.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 93.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| EricaDiaz22870x6d93…7f30 | Yes | 1 | 86.0¢ | $0 | — |
| TraderProMax0x9474…5091 | Yes | 1 | 21.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 0 | 82.0¢ | $0 | — |
| IrthBirth0xc092…5428 | No | 0 | 45.9¢ | $0 | — |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 6 shares each side · Show
|