Market · 13 of 15 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:27 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDGB0x2e3e…abea | No | 2,553 | 92.9¢ | $2.52K | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 1,077 bets |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | No | 96 | 96.9¢ | $94 | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Teshub0xa5d3…a6c6 | No | 81 | 95.2¢ | $80 | Proven+$31.54 per $100 · 160 bets |
| KTKK0x7e01…63be | No | 71 | 25.5¢ | $70 | Positive+$1.29 per $100 · 1,223 bets |
| 0x10d4…bae0 | No | 70 | 71.4¢ | $69 | — |
| hbvad0x0f98…605a | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| vladimirlennon0x3e31…e6d3 | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| gregnanny0x4083…05e5 | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| 1000.and.1.more.story0x5bb7…76ab | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| greta3760x7413…77b1 | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| hornofhorns0x8582…3f44 | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| eepybirb0x8f2a…b232 | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| diddydid0xc85c…36c7 | No | 53 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| 0xB16B00B50x8a7b…782f | No | 50 | 82.2¢ | $49 | — |
| chaosj880xca12…ea03 | No | 39 | 97.1¢ | $38 | Proven+$2.86 per $100 · 3,013 bets |
| bogdanalu0x0a38…438c | No | 20 | 0.0¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xd89e…b222 | No | 15 | 67.6¢ | $15 | — |
| 0xac38…c565 | Yes | 954 | 5.8¢ | $12 | — |
| ju5z0v5rpcf80xce50…88ae | No | 12 | 95.8¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x4015…f4a9 | No | 11 | 96.2¢ | $11 | New32 settled bets |
| liuruijin0x88b3…bad4 | No | 10 | 79.8¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xa577…0725 | No | 8 | 45.0¢ | $8 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 593 | 9.3¢ | $8 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| proxima1230x096c…b0e6 | No | 7 | 71.0¢ | $7 | — |
| MalloryNorris98980x6d48…d6f1 | No | 6 | 62.0¢ | $6 | — |
| DavisWilliamf0xb5ff…6668 | No | 5 | 97.1¢ | $5 | — |
| barenverge0x4eb6…5e8a | No | 5 | 78.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.10 per $100 · 1,857 bets |
| trader-c6777f270xc677…677a | No | 5 | 90.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x7660…33b6 | No | 5 | 57.0¢ | $5 | — |
| IrthBirth0xc092…5428 | No | 4 | 72.1¢ | $4 | — |
| 09F911029D740x4247…455f | No | 3 | 41.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 240 | 9.1¢ | $3 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,044 bets |
| quim700x6d95…558c | No | 3 | 67.0¢ | $3 | — |
| singaporesling0xfa8f…d61b | Yes | 207 | 77.3¢ | $3 | Losing−$19.40 per $100 · 617 bets |
| 0x5533…51ba | Yes | 204 | 0.9¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.29 per $100 · 18,335 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 192 | 9.4¢ | $3 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734.0x843c…0734 | Yes | 150 | 0.8¢ | $2 | — |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | Yes | 142 | 4.7¢ | $2 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 125 | 5.0¢ | $2 | — |
| icariam060x9592…a8fd | Yes | 125 | 9.3¢ | $2 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 114 | 5.8¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.67 per $100 · 123,278+ bets · updating |
| chaosj890xf085…02af | No | 1 | 97.6¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 5,508 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 78 | 22.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| osmych0x7008…2fdd | No | 1 | 97.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 25oodksmsss090x3bef…f04e | No | 1 | 29.9¢ | $1 | Positive+$2.74 per $100 · 3,550 bets |
| hitfar0x16b4…168f | No | 1 | 40.5¢ | $1 | Proven+$11.02 per $100 · 1,018 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 55 | 6.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 50 | 3.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| 0xdeb3…60cc | Yes | 50 | 40.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Caelum-Tang0x767d…8050 | Yes | 42 | 2.5¢ | $1 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 37 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 2.6¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| BASSATS010xe4ca…1383 | Yes | 24 | 29.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Nmondrow0x63fa…cbc0 | Yes | 22 | 88.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 86fgh0x2213…e5de | Yes | 16 | 11.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 283 bets |
| title10xbe74…a70e | Yes | 9 | 2.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.92 per $100 · 7,460 bets |
| explorer2210x7fa5…7621 | Yes | 9 | 23.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.04 per $100 · 692 bets |
| hesure0xbe0e…d429 | Yes | 7 | 5.0¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 6 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.63 per $100 · 127,579 bets |
| 48xsds0x0446…cc69 | Yes | 5 | 24.0¢ | $0 | — |
| commeowder0xd06f…d4a6 | Yes | 5 | 1.2¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.25 per $100 · 2,064 bets |
| E100hrall012u312nc0cgvvbvc80x9b71…c042 | Yes | 5 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| krlersatz0xb4ad…37b6 | Yes | 2 | 43.0¢ | $0 | — |
| uniloktij0xf13f…31cb | Yes | 2 | 4.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Xixihaha0080xf609…e68b | Yes | 2 | 18.7¢ | $0 | — |
| hhq50xaa72…2410 | Yes | 2 | 61.0¢ | $0 | — |
| shoobadooba180x2d6c…e3f5 | No | 0 | 94.9¢ | $0 | — |
| SaucePolly10x2869…527d | Yes | 1 | 39.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 50sad0xb143…3c17 | Yes | 1 | 19.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9f23…7d19 | No | 0 | 66.5¢ | $0 | — |
| constella0xf13d…9896 | Yes | 1 | 29.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 96.3¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,637 bets |
| luccajales0x3b69…01d7 | No | 0 | 96.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 26lkkdasdsa0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | 0 | 4.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.00 per $100 · 2,903 bets |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | Yes | 0 | 3.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$10.47 per $100 · 49,814+ bets · updating |
| Pol7StrategyBuilder0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | 0 | 6.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | 0 | 26.9¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 5 shares each side · Show
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5-Year Treasury Yield Peak · 2026 · 2 events · $48.8K in play