Market · 14 of 15 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:35 UTC. Not financial advice.
5-Year Treasury Yield Peak · 2026 · 2 events · $48.8K in play
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDGB0x2e3e…abea | No | 1,646 | 95.3¢ | $1.63K | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 1,077 bets |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | No | 257 | 91.8¢ | $254 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| pako0x71ed…d338 |
| No |
| 230 |
| 81.8¢ |
| $227 |
| Proven+$3.00 per $100 · 454 bets |
| Teshub0xa5d3…a6c6 | No | 132 | 94.3¢ | $131 | Proven+$31.54 per $100 · 160 bets |
| Happygamer0x06af…3741 | No | 100 | 88.0¢ | $99 | — |
| KTKK0x7e01…63be | No | 95 | 75.4¢ | $93 | Positive+$1.29 per $100 · 1,223 bets |
| Itami0x9180…fb11 | No | 71 | 70.0¢ | $71 | — |
| miamib...ch0xc833…44d1 | No | 58 | 97.1¢ | $57 | — |
| kjaskdaskdadsd0x405b…755c | No | 49 | 79.8¢ | $49 | — |
| explorer2210x7fa5…7621 | No | 30 | 75.9¢ | $30 | — |
| ju5z0v5rpcf80xce50…88ae | No | 7 | 97.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 25oodksmsss090x3bef…f04e | No | 5 | 62.0¢ | $5 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 4 | 94.3¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 331 | 5.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | 329 | 1.6¢ | $4 | Positive+$13.19 per $100 · 8,595 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 278 | 7.4¢ | $3 | — |
| deSora0x6eae…1916 | No | 3 | 94.3¢ | $3 | — |
| rocky420140xbb9f…557b | Yes | 245 | 7.3¢ | $3 | — |
| vivi40240x38a8…865a | Yes | 206 | 4.6¢ | $2 | — |
| Xixihaha0080xf609…e68b | No | 2 | 80.8¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xf528…7e5b | No | 2 | 73.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 125 | 8.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$4.46 per $100 · 1,422 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 2 | 93.7¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xac38…c565 | Yes | 119 | 20.8¢ | $1 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 118 | 9.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xdc46…4fb8 | Yes | 110 | 29.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Ss00x0xec23…d821 | Yes | 100 | 1.9¢ | $1 | — |
| sddx40xf51c…f9f3 | Yes | 100 | 19.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4cf3…06ad | No | 1 | 94.7¢ | $1 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 80 | 14.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | No | 1 | 77.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | Yes | 76 | 1.8¢ | $1 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| ng60000x6ffd…a637 | Yes | 70 | 24.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.39 per $100 · 7,738 bets |
| Bsau40x8b44…63fb | Yes | 53 | 26.6¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 51 | 6.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| chaosj890xf085…02af | Yes | 50 | 3.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 5,508 bets |
| 86fgh0x2213…e5de | Yes | 44 | 1.6¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 283 bets |
| 0x6d13…e682 | No | 1 | 74.0¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 6.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 29 | 6.2¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,042 bets |
| highriskanalyst0x2ba0…3acc | Yes | 18 | 27.0¢ | $0 | — |
| jjeeesusssus0x59fe…14fd | No | 0 | 71.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd064…2704 | No | 0 | 85.0¢ | $0 | — |
| TerranSupremacy0x4916…f56f | Yes | 12 | 29.3¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 10 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | Yes | 10 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 67xxabcsdafasdf0x779d…267c | Yes | 10 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sdafsafd0x8513…6a53 | Yes | 10 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdf111120xaf53…ca3b | Yes | 10 | 10.9¢ | $0 | — |
| dddab110xced1…d7cd | Yes | 10 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdf1110xe2e3…5897 | Yes | 10 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdddd44120xe9cd…be3f | Yes | 10 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| karttitan0xe4f1…9833 | Yes | 9 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Raketa090x1790…6fd2 | Yes | 8 | 20.1¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdfasdf340x48c5…10fc | Yes | 8 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sdfsdasss0x8fc2…11cd | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Monstredu380xcba1…b4e2 | Yes | 4 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| gvhvfewsfwe0x58fe…d502 | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sdfSEfde0x8506…3914 | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | — |
| dzfsbsdfgtb0xabf0…497f | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sdfweda0xef91…5146 | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sdfsfdsf0x3490…70fa | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sdaerg0x772d…7646 | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 9df0x4c9e…190b | Yes | 3 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JohnJJJ0x78d2…7a2b | Yes | 2 | 31.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xdeb3…60cc | Yes | 2 | 18.0¢ | $0 | — |
| podairpod0x2ed8…93d4 | No | 0 | 75.6¢ | $0 | Proven+$6.95 per $100 · 772 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 1 | 14.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| hitfar0x16b4…168f | No | 0 | 71.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | Yes | 1 | 5.6¢ | $0 | — |
| TraderProMax0x9474…5091 | Yes | 1 | 19.4¢ | $0 | — |
| TradingBotDF490x2bfb…5c9e | Yes | 1 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 52adsa0x5146…ac5e | Yes | 0 | 6.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 27kgfdogodgfg0x7257…fc40 | Yes | 0 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| shoobadooba180x2d6c…e3f5 | Yes | 0 | 5.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 5 shares each side · Show
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