Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 04:06 UTC. Not financial advice.
Kostyantynivka Captured by Russia · 2 events · $485K in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 20 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No | 89,499 | 47.5¢ | $75.2K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 55,146 | 54.5¢ | $46.3K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| elPolloLoco0xa2f1…2d22 | Yes | 277,396 | 50.7¢ | $44.4K | Positive+$1.78 per $100 · 4,815 bets |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | No | 45,394 | 53.9¢ | $38.1K | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e | No | 17,986 | 47.7¢ | $15.1K | Losing−$9.91 per $100 · 139 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 17,688 | 50.7¢ | $14.9K | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,318 bets |
| SlenderMan0xab19…4876 | No | 17,277 | 46.9¢ | $14.5K | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 533 bets |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | No | 14,987 | 61.0¢ | $12.6K | New55 settled bets |
| DumplingBMF0x8f69…7df1 | No | 13,383 | 74.6¢ | $11.2K | Proven+$2.52 per $100 · 3,946 bets |
| anotherpatrick0xc984…37ca | No | 11,692 | 58.3¢ | $9.82K | — |
| viktorurolog160xcf9e…518e | No | 10,714 | 51.7¢ | $9K | — |
| 0xb7c1…675e | No | 8,836 | 69.3¢ | $7.42K | Proven+$7.75 per $100 · 160 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 8,744 | 57.2¢ | $7.34K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,398 bets |
| Logan.0x5109…5e9c | No | 6,118 | 45.7¢ | $5.14K | Proven+$6.53 per $100 · 2,293 bets |
| serferer0xdc70…cc56 | No | 4,993 | 61.2¢ | $4.19K | — |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | No | 4,857 | 56.1¢ | $4.08K | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 931 bets |
| Azrarn0x8631…9a73 | Yes | 22,355 | 40.8¢ | $3.58K | Losing−$6.27 per $100 · 248 bets |
| CryptoGo0x129d…7d2d | Yes | 21,974 | 40.7¢ | $3.52K | Positive+$3.41 per $100 · 177 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 4,100 | 61.6¢ | $3.44K | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| Gladius70xc932…e6a5 | No | 3,565 | 58.9¢ | $2.99K | Proven+$6.20 per $100 · 264 bets |
| RewardsMafia0x3eed…cb2a | No | 3,373 | 76.6¢ | $2.83K | Losing−$7.88 per $100 · 238 bets |
| vakulchik0x741d…e35c | No | 3,065 | 55.5¢ | $2.57K | — |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | No | 3,000 | 48.5¢ | $2.52K | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| jtradegbr0x2bc7…e411 | No | 2,840 | 74.6¢ | $2.39K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 2,136 bets |
| cocos2280x8e5c…a68a | No | 2,714 | 56.0¢ | $2.28K | Proven+$17.59 per $100 · 119 bets |
| vk70x74db…4ca5 | Yes | 12,500 | 47.8¢ | $2K | New59 settled bets |
| 0xd054…7e38 | No | 2,354 | 58.8¢ | $1.98K | — |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 2,290 | 79.8¢ | $1.92K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,975 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 2,130 | 55.8¢ | $1.79K | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,990 bets |
| Motosha0x124f…0dea | No | 1,859 | 51.7¢ | $1.56K | Losing−$10.65 per $100 · 329 bets |
| TPAA0x93ef…468b | No | 1,849 | 48.5¢ | $1.55K | — |
| zxdfbdfgngcxv0x57b0…76f4 | No | 1,741 | 55.8¢ | $1.46K | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,947 bets |
| TralaleloTralalala0x5d91…3578 | No | 1,650 | 52.4¢ | $1.39K | Proven+$16.25 per $100 · 885 bets |
| semantics0x8dcf…5668 | No | 1,543 | 50.6¢ | $1.3K | Losing−$3.35 per $100 · 235 bets |
| 0x3e20x3e23…8579 | No | 1,503 | 56.1¢ | $1.26K | New94 settled bets |
| Giannis20260xe5b4…1e3e | No | 1,500 | 57.7¢ | $1.26K | Proven+$13.43 per $100 · 350 bets |
| AlexZA30x5c5b…1a6d | No | 1,482 | 53.5¢ | $1.24K | Positive+$4.62 per $100 · 181 bets |
| 0xcc09…1442 | Yes | 7,380 | 45.3¢ | $1.18K | — |
| DoubleAgentKrasnov0x6d8c…b79a | No | 1,380 | 67.9¢ | $1.16K | Proven+$14.14 per $100 · 210 bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 1,322 | 86.8¢ | $1.11K | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| AnonDaveDave0x98bc…a1da | No | 1,248 | 77.6¢ | $1.05K | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 1,147 | 55.4¢ | $964 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | No | 1,091 | 62.7¢ | $916 | Proven+$7.58 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 1,000 | 62.3¢ | $840 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 1,000 | 62.6¢ | $840 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 959 | 53.1¢ | $806 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 627 bets |
| 0x4db1…e2ab | Yes | 4,990 | 53.6¢ | $798 | New40 settled bets |
| BurGive0x63bc…f87d | Yes | 4,977 | 20.1¢ | $796 | New1 settled bet |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | No | 936 | 52.2¢ | $787 | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 6,737 bets |
| unsecured73080xe0d9…8483 | No | 918 | 54.5¢ | $771 | — |
| leCommissaire0x9238…b73e | No | 900 | 52.2¢ | $756 | Proven+$12.28 per $100 · 3,035 bets |
| CompulsiveGambler0xe0f1…c4bd | No | 894 | 60.2¢ | $751 | Proven+$5.10 per $100 · 1,724 bets |
| 0xf7fe…07cf | No | 863 | 69.1¢ | $725 | — |
| Voltoger0xfffe…4e6c | No | 850 | 64.3¢ | $714 | — |
| shred77770x43cc…9211 | No | 821 | 43.0¢ | $690 | Proven+$7.41 per $100 · 237 bets |
| lionkinglionkinglionking0xa0b6…3961 | No | 740 | 59.8¢ | $622 | — |
| trader-c52fead80xc52f…0981 | No | 736 | 48.9¢ | $618 | — |
| 0x4756…a006 | Yes | 3,628 | 52.4¢ | $581 | New12 settled bets |
| 0xc7b0…c0ee | Yes | 3,175 | 17.3¢ | $508 | — |
| 5.6sol0x5709…22c3 | Yes | 3,146 | 47.9¢ | $503 | Losing−$18.06 per $100 · 374 bets |
| oleh1080xf9de…fc3c | Yes | 2,809 | 43.1¢ | $449 | — |
| Catfly0xd8dc…0222 | Yes | 2,500 | 17.2¢ | $400 | New8 settled bets |
| risard0x3177…b264 | Yes | 2,272 | 43.8¢ | $363 | New17 settled bets |
| 0x23e6…24fa | Yes | 2,174 | 46.0¢ | $348 | New29 settled bets |
| PavlikKul0x7dbd…855e | Yes | 2,088 | 47.9¢ | $334 | — |
| Nik20250x0eda…fff0 | Yes | 2,069 | 48.3¢ | $331 | New10 settled bets |
| justenjoythelife0x620c…0d32 | Yes | 2,000 | 39.0¢ | $320 | New6 settled bets |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | Yes | 1,911 | 54.0¢ | $306 | Break-even+$0.76 per $100 · 6,865 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,789 | 13.9¢ | $286 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,075 bets |
| Le-bron0xf171…398d | Yes | 1,700 | 48.0¢ | $272 | — |
| 0xf257…9420 | Yes | 1,600 | 49.6¢ | $256 | — |
| Torin810x9290…3452 | Yes | 1,570 | 41.4¢ | $251 | — |
| oswiu0xebad…00ba | Yes | 1,516 | 32.1¢ | $243 | New26 settled bets |
| claudemole0xf456…d568 | Yes | 1,237 | 44.7¢ | $198 | — |
| rufus.reddington0x953d…b279 | Yes | 1,057 | 45.4¢ | $169 | — |
| 0x9783…ac60 | Yes | 1,053 | 37.3¢ | $168 | — |
| KrdRL0x63c1…70d7 | Yes | 857 | 53.9¢ | $137 | Proven+$6.14 per $100 · 108 bets |
| richmond10xb1f4…e758 | Yes | 800 | 46.2¢ | $128 | — |
| Tambasova0x33ea…f2f0 | Yes | 763 | 54.3¢ | $122 | New21 settled bets |
| 0x777jmex0x7776…1e8c | Yes | 718 | 38.0¢ | $115 | — |
| 0x48b3…7fab | Yes | 678 | 43.5¢ | $108 | New6 settled bets |
| 0x2b58…9a40 | Yes | 622 | 48.2¢ | $100 | New26 settled bets |
| Krkubine0xe26a…1f54 | Yes | 576 | 35.4¢ | $92 | — |
| dreyzeno0x01be…ae3c | Yes | 502 | 25.9¢ | $80 | New12 settled bets |
| Morholt0x88c9…7e55 | Yes | 469 | 21.3¢ | $75 | — |
| dntmfc0x54b6…b9e1 | Yes | 410 | 34.1¢ | $66 | New2 settled bets |
| 8r24f8934h0x230c…f56f | Yes | 404 | 46.0¢ | $65 | New9 settled bets |
| aislave0x071b…43e7 | Yes | 400 | 50.0¢ | $64 | New45 settled bets |
| Volodymyr-Zelensky0x306f…aa99 | Yes | 380 | 38.2¢ | $61 | Proven+$18.90 per $100 · 214 bets |
| PLYBOTLIAM0x7cd6…b33c | Yes | 357 | 56.0¢ | $57 | — |
| Razirback0x92c7…c136 | No | 67 | 74.0¢ | $56 | Losing−$1.17 per $100 · 4,966 bets |
| persikbandit0xe499…b583 | Yes | 325 | 52.0¢ | $52 | — |
| cqs0xdfe3…73c4 | Yes | 310 | 34.0¢ | $50 | Proven+$3.66 per $100 · 401 bets |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | Yes | 281 | 50.0¢ | $45 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| 0x2c42…f74a | Yes | 273 | 55.0¢ | $44 | New41 settled bets |
| 0xafe7…cb77 | Yes | 260 | 50.2¢ | $42 | — |
| xandr0s0x41a3…8d0d | Yes | 232 | 43.2¢ | $37 | New25 settled bets |
| ANUBIS180xb2ba…f961 | Yes | 230 | 43.5¢ | $37 | — |
| anonismkio0x0c18…7a4e | Yes | 227 | 44.1¢ | $36 | New67 settled bets |
| winwinclub0x6931…7b05 | Yes | 208 | 48.0¢ | $33 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.