Market · 2 of 11 outcomes
Will Gavin Newsom be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 20:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SusanWarrenHR0x22db…190f | Yes | 390 | 15.5¢ | $72 | Proven+$4.72 per $100 · 8,310 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 74 | 85.3¢ | $60 |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 60 | 82.3¢ | $49 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,132 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 45 | 85.2¢ | $37 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,303 bets |
| aliiz0xbea0…e19d | Yes | 97 | 15.7¢ | $18 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 19 | 81.1¢ | $15 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 124,233+ bets · updating |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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US 2028 presidential race · 14 events · $63.7M in play
Exactly one of this event's 11 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
These 11 outcomes add up to 101.8¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.