Market · 5 of 23 outcomes
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:45 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| caviaro0xb36b…7804 | Yes | 311,358 | 0.1¢ | $156 | Proven+$4.76 per $100 · 867 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 137 | 71.5¢ | $137 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | No | 60 | 99.6¢ | $60 | — |
| 64MGX75VLQ0xf4d0…4637 | No | 10 | 99.9¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 1,100 bets |
| 0x4d36…cbfa | No | 9 | 99.9¢ | $9 | — |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 7 | 99.5¢ | $7 | — |
| mao010xef02…4f7e | Yes | 11,888 | 0.1¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xd7d5…af7f | No | 5 | 86.0¢ | $5 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 7,984 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 7,563 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$7.96 per $100 · 18,816 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 7,168 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$5.61 per $100 · 87,313 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 5,868 | 2.2¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,311 bets |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 5,492 | 2.2¢ | $3 | Positive+$5.68 per $100 · 56,830+ bets · updating |
| RadioCCOD0x66f9…adb9 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.2¢ | $3 | Proven+$95.13 per $100 · 197 bets |
| mwenya0xde04…fa37 | No | 2 | 71.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 45,035 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 3,893 | 2.2¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,412 bets |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | Yes | 3,587 | 2.2¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,982 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 3,488 | 2.2¢ | $2 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 3,485 | 0.3¢ | $2 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,518 bets |
| Reppolexo0xb330…c587 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9b12…c2d5 | Yes | 2,747 | 2.2¢ | $1 | — |
| koreshelio0x10cf…7452 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| asdsad6h0xe5ea…fb56 | No | 1 | 78.0¢ | $1 | — |
| U780x4d91…34fb | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd32c…a4c2 | Yes | 1,470 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.63 per $100 · 3,766 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,443 | 1.5¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| lisalala0x5a52…1557 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| rocky420100x84d7…298f | Yes | 1,250 | 0.4¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.82 per $100 · 9,913 bets |
| puipui24860x70d9…a684 | Yes | 1,215 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$28.52 per $100 · 4,039 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 1,161 | 0.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 1,093 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| 0x1194…8e19 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x12356510x1bfb…8bea | Yes | 1,000 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.57 per $100 · 3,956 bets |
| Gorea0x22e0…3adb | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$21.33 per $100 · 690 bets |
| labistiiia0x3879…d8c3 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$14.36 per $100 · 22,813 bets |
| 0x43cd…bf40 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$10.38 per $100 · 360 bets |
| norealtime0x56c2…6219 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$11.38 per $100 · 9,404 bets |
| Godofsunmoon0x93c4…443c | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa971…6355 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 944 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,046 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 920 | 0.6¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| stweb330x0325…fb19 | Yes | 900 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Binotto0xdd9e…49b3 | Yes | 880 | 1.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$19.17 per $100 · 1,659 bets |
| AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92 | Yes | 843 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 260 bets |
| plainfolder0x28bf…4a4e | Yes | 842 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.38 per $100 · 41,591+ bets · updating |
| avengers2357avengers0xf95e…ec50 | Yes | 724 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 674 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| UbuntuTrading0xc3cd…816c | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.56 per $100 · 9,359 bets |
| 0x551b…b47e | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 355 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 551 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| paspor0x3dd2…9ab1 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.71 per $100 · 50,296 bets |
| korda770xa328…4977 | Yes | 519 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.82 per $100 · 42,898 bets |
| 0xfbd8…4027 | Yes | 515 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.13 per $100 · 58,633+ bets · updating |
| wizardsmagic0x18de…1f14 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| thi3f0xc982…044b | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xdaf9…dba5 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe5ab…8b8d | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe77a…1382 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| northdrawer0xfd55…f905 | Yes | 482 | 2.1¢ | $0 | — |
| KickstandBot0xca1f…d282 | Yes | 450 | 1.8¢ | $0 | — |
| merod0x8373…f0bc | Yes | 437 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.62 per $100 · 17,356 bets |
| pd.unique0x27ab…e521 | Yes | 428 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 30,847 bets |
| godblessme20260x7dcf…a7bd | Yes | 406 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| mymacbook0x0999…dd96 | Yes | 377 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 319 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.76 per $100 · 71,370+ bets · updating |
| hklcrypt0x7449…c05e | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd39c…8d35 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe36a…671d | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9e7c…f06f | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x01d2…c603 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xde06…bcb7 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| jeanmermier0x1e63…7267 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa158…1c1b | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x227b…76f9 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| lonelyfighter0x97c6…6587 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Laurentdepau0x38ab…ab66 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| influenz.eth0xe8dd…ec86 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 45,814 bets |
| 0x8220…92a5 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2c78…adf3 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x3317…76b4 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1e82…af92 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x6a07…2952 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| rgtfhb0xdd6d…19f8 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9b4b…591c | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9120…2fcc | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| sebelmaestro0x1a96…9797 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.17 per $100 · 5,892 bets |
| 0xa996…34b5 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| nullpointa0xc617…0d15 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8db8…c3f0 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| gudgrknogq0x355b…4472 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x72e0…0b96 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| BillRockefeller0x12ed…54b0 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
| alexisisrael130x2487…c8c0 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Gustavo022251630x35cd…6d0a | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 678apollo0x5157…145f | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| shine0xe4cf…78c4 | Yes | 0 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| NoMoreMister0x4df7…522d | Yes | 0 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.57 per $100 · 28,074 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 675 events · $32.3M in play
Exactly one of this event's 23 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.