Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? · Polyray
Market
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
Chance of Yes
▼ 1 pt this week
Money on this market
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0.5¢ between buy and sell
Bet this week
Ends
Nov 4
in 23 days
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?”.
§1The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
§2This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, wins control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and has a seat count of at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
§3A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats.
§4If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
§5The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the United States House of Representatives and the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. Senate.
§6For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included.
§7The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:25 UTC. Not financial advice.
§8Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
§9Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
§10For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
§11If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
§12For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election.
§13If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
§14Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count.
§15If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year.
§16If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
§17The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.