Market · 6 of 6 outcomes
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 15:43 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 15 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GoriIIa0xfffa…864b | No | 12,074 | 92.2¢ | $11.9K | Proven+$2.39 per $100 · 414 bets |
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | No | 7,346 | 93.7¢ | $7.25K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| aff30xe52c…6924 | No | 7,030 | 85.3¢ | $6.94K | Proven+$2.95 per $100 · 276 bets |
| bryp123450x044a…f35e | No | 3,600 | 86.2¢ | $3.55K | New76 settled bets |
| Bukaj08890x5be7…1b1d | No | 3,491 | 86.4¢ | $3.44K | Positive+$1.97 per $100 · 245 bets |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 2,787 | 97.1¢ | $2.75K | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |