Market · 3 of 6 outcomes
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:36 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dsds10xc85d…18b2 | No | 254 | 77.6¢ | $202 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 120 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 149 | 78.0¢ | $119 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 351 | 23.6¢ | $72 | Losing−$2.76 per $100 · 122,728 bets |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 83 | 79.6¢ | $66 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 61 | 79.0¢ | $48 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 60 | 78.0¢ | $48 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.