Market · 4 of 6 outcomes
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:39 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
9 proven traders are on Yes, 17 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| aff30xe52c…6924 | No | 265,728 | 83.8¢ | $248K | Proven+$2.90 per $100 · 274 bets |
| GoriIIa0xfffa…864b | No | 249,853 | 83.3¢ | $234K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 56,739 | 86.4¢ | $53.1K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 776 bets |
| gorovi0x1de9…831d | No | 29,245 | 90.2¢ | $27.3K | Positive+$1.79 per $100 · 398 bets |
| 0xcf19…6402 | No | 18,822 | 76.3¢ | $17.6K | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 457 bets |
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | No | 15,000 | 80.4¢ | $14K | Proven+$5.27 per $100 · 3,127 bets |