Market · 5 of 6 outcomes
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:35 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | No | 3,534 | 94.7¢ | $3.42K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,933 bets |
| vamnizar0xaf46…8c1d | No | 161 | 94.0¢ | $156 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| ofcourseistillloveyou20190xcea0…3d06 |
| No |
| 133 |
| 95.3¢ |
| $129 |
| Break-even+$0.13 per $100 · 1,507 bets |
| lionsix0x272b…e303 | No | 100 | 96.2¢ | $97 | — |
| EconomistOx0xf2a3…8a8d | No | 52 | 96.0¢ | $50 | — |
| lako130x065b…714f | No | 41 | 85.5¢ | $40 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 10 shares each side · Show
|