Market · 5 of 6 outcomes
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 21:36 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | No | 3,534 | 94.7¢ | $3.38K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,934 bets |
| vamnizar0xaf46…8c1d | No | 161 | 94.0¢ | $154 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| ofcourseistillloveyou20190xcea0…3d06 |
| No |
| 133 |
| 95.3¢ |
| $127 |
| Break-even+$0.13 per $100 · 1,507 bets |
| lionsix0x272b…e303 | No | 100 | 96.2¢ | $96 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 228 bets |
| Jet90x8705…8354 | No | 78 | 95.7¢ | $75 | Proven+$8.39 per $100 · 490 bets |
| EconomistOx0xf2a3…8a8d | No | 52 | 96.0¢ | $50 | — |
| NoobDogg0x9548…6bcb | Yes | 1,082 | 4.6¢ | $46 | — |
| lako130x065b…714f | No | 41 | 85.5¢ | $39 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 917 | 5.5¢ | $39 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| racesdavid0x6990…1f8d | No | 30 | 93.9¢ | $29 | Break-even+$0.01 per $100 · 177 bets |
| Podublin0xb4a3…c352 | No | 21 | 96.7¢ | $20 | — |
| TypeShi0x3df1…72e7 | Yes | 415 | 3.8¢ | $18 | Proven+$7.08 per $100 · 350 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 388 | 4.6¢ | $16 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| rocky420040xcf37…993f | Yes | 300 | 3.5¢ | $13 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 280 | 5.1¢ | $12 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| TrueThinker0x5742…50a6 | Yes | 278 | 3.7¢ | $12 | — |
| koninginhetkasteel0x69bf…1737 | Yes | 277 | 5.2¢ | $12 | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 102 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 10 | 96.9¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,987 bets |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | No | 10 | 94.9¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.02 per $100 · 13,936 bets |
| Maximus3740x0547…fb35 | No | 8 | 95.6¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.65 per $100 · 13,963 bets |
| regregr0xcbe2…b059 | No | 7 | 97.3¢ | $7 | — |
| vadret0xe6d0…5b15 | No | 7 | 97.3¢ | $7 | — |
| GarthBroadmore0x8d97…fbd8 | Yes | 100 | 6.3¢ | $4 | Positive+$21.98 per $100 · 1,010 bets |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 4 | 95.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,720 bets |
| brianmok0x4108…17b1 | No | 4 | 96.3¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.02 per $100 · 811 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 60 | 3.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | No | 3 | 94.7¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 11,893 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 3.2¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 3,303 bets |
| 0xa276…361e | Yes | 29 | 3.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | No | 1 | 93.9¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 817 bets |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | Yes | 10 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 9 | 2.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| dddab110xced1…d7cd | Yes | 8 | 6.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x5123…2f31 | No | 0 | 79.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | No | 0 | 91.3¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| 0x5533…51ba | Yes | 1 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.43 per $100 · 18,435 bets |
| trashtier0x7df6…ac3b | No | 0 | 95.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.40 per $100 · 6,509 bets |
| angb8100x9a14…1c26 | No | 0 | 95.6¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 10 shares each side · Show
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