Market · 1 of 6 outcomes
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:01 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | No | 890 | 51.6¢ | $485 | Proven+$5.25 per $100 · 3,129 bets |
| dsds10xc85d…18b2 | No | 858 | 57.5¢ | $468 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 120 bets |
| King-Nothing0xd693…0c8a | Yes | 1,006 | 48.0¢ | $458 | — |
| TheOne7770x2b62…438c | Yes | 650 | 35.1¢ | $296 | — |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd0x5446…18f6 | Yes | 200 | 32.9¢ | $91 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 169 | 46.3¢ | $77 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.