Market · 1 of 6 outcomes
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:09 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | No | 890 | 51.6¢ | $485 | Proven+$5.25 per $100 · 3,129 bets |
| dsds10xc85d…18b2 | No | 858 | 57.5¢ | $468 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 120 bets |
| King-Nothing0xd693…0c8a | Yes | 1,006 | 48.0¢ | $458 | — |
| TheOne7770x2b62…438c | Yes | 650 | 35.1¢ | $296 | Proven+$19.42 per $100 · 1,428 bets |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd0x5446…18f6 | Yes | 200 | 32.9¢ | $91 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 120 | 65.0¢ | $65 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 109 | 46.3¢ | $50 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| leadernew0x9c2d…1b16 | No | 72 | 66.0¢ | $39 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 60 | 66.0¢ | $33 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| trashtier0x7df6…ac3b | No | 60 | 56.0¢ | $33 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 6,486 bets |
| 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | 60 | 51.0¢ | $27 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 60 | 51.0¢ | $27 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | No | 50 | 55.9¢ | $27 | Break-even−$0.02 per $100 · 13,936 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 50 | 50.0¢ | $23 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 30 | 58.0¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 26 | 66.2¢ | $14 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| RefJ.0x79ae…b9ff | Yes | 13 | 32.5¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x3cd3…c5ae | Yes | 10 | 40.1¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | 5 | 51.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$15.49 per $100 · 4,509 bets |
| Petty.Bourgeoise0x0a79…1cd5 | Yes | 3 | 29.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$5.50 per $100 · 146 bets |
| Flingflonger0xecef…4909 | No | 1 | 69.0¢ | $1 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 1 | 20.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 0 | 68.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.