Market · 4 of 6 outcomes
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 13:32 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
9 proven traders are on Yes, 17 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| aff30xe52c…6924 | No | 265,728 | 83.8¢ | $251K | Proven+$2.95 per $100 · 276 bets |
| GoriIIa0xfffa…864b | No | 255,385 | 83.6¢ | $241K | Proven+$2.39 per $100 · 414 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 56,739 | 86.4¢ | $53.6K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 789 bets |
| gorovi0x1de9…831d | No | 29,245 | 90.2¢ | $27.6K | Positive+$1.79 per $100 · 398 bets |
| 0xcf19…6402 | No | 18,822 | 76.3¢ | $17.8K | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 457 bets |
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | No | 15,000 | 80.4¢ | $14.2K | Proven+$5.25 per $100 · 3,129 bets |
| AlfredTheShiller0xcd6b…68f5 | No | 12,652 | 80.8¢ | $12K | Proven+$5.96 per $100 · 1,413 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 12,181 | 81.9¢ | $11.5K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| Alphax0xc781…59d7 | No | 10,038 | 79.9¢ | $9.49K | Losing−$2.00 per $100 · 1,638 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | No | 8,068 | 88.8¢ | $7.62K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| ttttr3240x76f9…9d10 | No | 7,173 | 87.0¢ | $6.78K | New23 settled bets |
| knrad0x4d01…1645 | No | 7,169 | 82.6¢ | $6.77K | Positive+$2.87 per $100 · 1,296 bets |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | No | 6,300 | 82.4¢ | $5.95K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| ajaaja0x93d4…7345 | No | 6,000 | 81.2¢ | $5.67K | Break-even−$0.95 per $100 · 238 bets |
| FastPaws0x0548…d852 | No | 5,015 | 79.0¢ | $4.74K | New39 settled bets |
| tnl0xb619…5068 | No | 5,000 | 85.2¢ | $4.72K | Break-even+$0.97 per $100 · 1,243 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 4,230 | 88.4¢ | $4K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,943 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 3,926 | 84.0¢ | $3.71K | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 66,656 | 16.2¢ | $3.67K | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | Yes | 58,900 | 16.8¢ | $3.24K | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 729 bets |
| dzsibenaja0x59a5…afc8 | No | 3,000 | 72.2¢ | $2.83K | Proven+$2.40 per $100 · 217 bets |
| jk345a6bsdk0xdf6c…eb44 | No | 2,900 | 72.1¢ | $2.74K | Proven+$9.65 per $100 · 372 bets |
| mm4ker0x8c57…f939 | No | 2,814 | 80.6¢ | $2.66K | Proven+$4.56 per $100 · 367 bets |
| Clankerpac0xfe9e…00de | No | 2,732 | 90.8¢ | $2.58K | New16 settled bets |
| ErnstKuzorra0xad8e…776e | No | 2,630 | 76.0¢ | $2.49K | Losing−$1.19 per $100 · 621 bets |
| Danielj0xda2d…1cee | Yes | 44,929 | 23.3¢ | $2.47K | New9 settled bets |
| Sibarit870xf6fe…b5d1 | No | 2,526 | 86.2¢ | $2.39K | Losing−$19.52 per $100 · 139 bets |
| Olcan0x355e…a038 | No | 2,500 | 77.8¢ | $2.36K | Proven+$6.27 per $100 · 4,948 bets |
| Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4 | No | 2,500 | 81.5¢ | $2.36K | Proven+$3.05 per $100 · 1,767 bets |
| Animalmother0x346b…d70f | Yes | 40,376 | 15.0¢ | $2.22K | New20 settled bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | No | 2,315 | 85.3¢ | $2.19K | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 743 bets |
| jackcartwright0x332f…1ee8 | Yes | 37,161 | 22.2¢ | $2.04K | Proven+$16.31 per $100 · 485 bets |
| 0x3d09…654f | Yes | 37,111 | 18.8¢ | $2.04K | New0 settled bets |
| DegenerateJanet0x8964…0bec | No | 2,040 | 89.0¢ | $1.93K | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 666 bets |
| 0x6c1f…87fc | Yes | 34,592 | 27.7¢ | $1.9K | New11 settled bets |
| Sardinianshepherd0xf42f…a6a7 | No | 2,000 | 84.0¢ | $1.89K | Proven+$5.08 per $100 · 1,737 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,983 | 85.6¢ | $1.87K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| MerziPuperzi0x835e…41e5 | Yes | 34,011 | 23.3¢ | $1.87K | New0 settled bets |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | No | 1,858 | 75.7¢ | $1.76K | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,730 bets |
| HaPe19650xf226…1f7f | Yes | 30,162 | 16.1¢ | $1.66K | New1 settled bet |
| mdorup0x9d4a…5887 | No | 1,723 | 87.5¢ | $1.63K | New10 settled bets |
| dsds10xc85d…18b2 | No | 1,645 | 84.0¢ | $1.55K | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 120 bets |
| GamGanapati0xbd8a…f9bd | No | 1,500 | 85.9¢ | $1.42K | Proven+$2.75 per $100 · 820 bets |
| Huluhol0x13d0…593d | Yes | 24,927 | 19.1¢ | $1.37K | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 134 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 1,354 | 82.7¢ | $1.28K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,967 bets |
| Madsolbro0x0e09…05bb | No | 1,250 | 80.6¢ | $1.18K | Losing−$5.70 per $100 · 124 bets |
| lowrisk240x3238…3291 | No | 1,186 | 85.1¢ | $1.12K | Losing−$2.42 per $100 · 1,089 bets |
| DrNee0xba62…58e9 | No | 1,182 | 84.6¢ | $1.12K | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 331 bets |
| dromedaryy0x6575…b198 | Yes | 17,820 | 19.6¢ | $980 | New85 settled bets |
| Breath0x9879…5e70 | No | 1,018 | 79.2¢ | $962 | New14 settled bets |
| FMANTENNA0x9826…e7fe | No | 1,001 | 80.1¢ | $946 | Proven+$6.08 per $100 · 273 bets |
| merch0x45e8…cc6c | No | 1,000 | 87.0¢ | $945 | Positive+$1.57 per $100 · 310 bets |
| dsoperative0x4be5…c1b3 | No | 1,000 | 82.0¢ | $945 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 454 bets |
| Subparconductor0x5514…10df | No | 1,000 | 82.6¢ | $945 | New66 settled bets |
| LukiB0x730d…d448 | No | 1,000 | 81.0¢ | $945 | New87 settled bets |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | No | 1,000 | 78.2¢ | $945 | Positive+$1.33 per $100 · 2,434 bets |
| 0x15d2…bc1a | Yes | 16,573 | 14.7¢ | $912 | New0 settled bets |
| hanswurst08150x55ba…16d1 | Yes | 16,370 | 18.8¢ | $900 | New25 settled bets |
| au60xbeb9…aea6 | Yes | 16,145 | 13.5¢ | $888 | New0 settled bets |
| BerkshireHahaway0x7f29…0760 | No | 863 | 81.6¢ | $815 | Break-even−$0.09 per $100 · 1,494 bets |
| occasionalAwareness0x8a4c…532b | Yes | 13,654 | 20.0¢ | $751 | Proven+$3.04 per $100 · 2,447 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 12,718 | 8.2¢ | $700 | Positive+$7.23 per $100 · 10,676 bets |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | No | 710 | 71.0¢ | $671 | Positive+$6.43 per $100 · 7,366 bets |
| 0x8347…fee2 | Yes | 11,425 | 28.2¢ | $628 | New3 settled bets |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | No | 611 | 81.2¢ | $578 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 10,297 | 18.2¢ | $566 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,414 bets |
| simak0xf792…1682 | No | 566 | 88.4¢ | $535 | — |
| Gohst0x2d4b…ca7a | No | 535 | 33.7¢ | $505 | Proven+$80.31 per $100 · 2,060 bets |
| honk750x5651…66a6 | Yes | 7,853 | 24.5¢ | $432 | Losing−$3.90 per $100 · 1,529 bets |
| BrownBees0x75a2…6992 | Yes | 7,524 | 15.6¢ | $414 | Proven+$33.52 per $100 · 139 bets |
| seal70x2b9d…adc0 | Yes | 7,494 | 16.4¢ | $412 | Proven+$9.63 per $100 · 898 bets |
| 0x5E2xxx0x02bb…eea2 | Yes | 6,663 | 25.6¢ | $366 | New0 settled bets |
| dstier860x2b13…4636 | Yes | 6,561 | 15.8¢ | $361 | New0 settled bets |
| Humble-Monk0x2200…0f2d | Yes | 6,461 | 19.6¢ | $355 | Proven+$5.72 per $100 · 965 bets |
| geph0x90c8…9617 | Yes | 6,309 | 21.3¢ | $347 | Losing−$1.61 per $100 · 314 bets |
| metadelta0xb6ad…9378 | Yes | 6,135 | 12.1¢ | $337 | New1 settled bet |
| 0x1891…06d3 | Yes | 5,774 | 17.6¢ | $318 | New10 settled bets |
| 0x2dc1…08e1 | Yes | 5,664 | 25.0¢ | $312 | New16 settled bets |
| 0xcb58…0160 | Yes | 5,500 | 21.1¢ | $303 | Break-even+$0.18 per $100 · 113 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 5,476 | 19.8¢ | $301 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 636 bets |
| suhei0xfe0d…52d2 | Yes | 5,267 | 16.9¢ | $290 | New10 settled bets |
| Carlitosway230xc940…4d39 | Yes | 4,986 | 30.1¢ | $274 | Losing−$6.19 per $100 · 124 bets |
| catTr0x8086…8d3e | Yes | 4,596 | 18.5¢ | $253 | New3 settled bets |
| 0x9525…dfa5 | Yes | 4,494 | 18.2¢ | $247 | New0 settled bets |
| PashaAsOracul0x4fbf…f319 | Yes | 4,431 | 24.1¢ | $244 | New62 settled bets |
| juniorBrise0x6932…e4a7 | Yes | 4,208 | 14.7¢ | $231 | New82 settled bets |
| alphacino0xa40f…f609 | Yes | 4,081 | 25.2¢ | $224 | New5 settled bets |
| GarthBroadmore0x8d97…fbd8 | Yes | 3,715 | 11.5¢ | $204 | Positive+$21.98 per $100 · 1,010 bets |
| pathos120xd848…82c6 | Yes | 3,600 | 14.9¢ | $198 | New34 settled bets |
| sualafeld0x355c…622d | Yes | 3,353 | 17.2¢ | $184 | New0 settled bets |
| ChasingPaper0x8dc7…116f | Yes | 2,997 | 17.2¢ | $165 | Proven+$10.97 per $100 · 442 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 2,881 | 7.0¢ | $158 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| DrChristian0xb15d…2851 | Yes | 2,858 | 22.1¢ | $157 | Proven+$5.50 per $100 · 142 bets |
| BlockBuilders0x5738…5ca3 | Yes | 2,754 | 18.6¢ | $151 | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 1,309 bets |
| whispercatalyst0x460a…d738 | Yes | 2,698 | 15.6¢ | $148 | Break-even−$0.44 per $100 · 3,756 bets |
| 0x7577…8fb9 | Yes | 2,584 | 13.6¢ | $142 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 210 bets |
| 0xd4f7…73bb | Yes | 2,504 | 11.2¢ | $138 | Proven+$9.54 per $100 · 121 bets |
| Korne0xf70f…d753 | Yes | 2,300 | 19.1¢ | $126 | Losing−$8.99 per $100 · 421 bets |
| VLKI0x7c3d…ef8e | Yes | 2,293 | 13.6¢ | $126 | New64 settled bets |
| 0xd29b…d17d | Yes | 2,117 | 12.9¢ | $116 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.