Market · 3 of 6 outcomes
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:23 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dsds10xc85d…18b2 | No | 254 | 77.6¢ | $202 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 120 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 149 | 78.0¢ | $119 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 83 | 79.6¢ | $66 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 305 | 23.6¢ | $63 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 61 | 79.0¢ | $48 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 60 | 78.0¢ | $48 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 55 | 78.0¢ | $44 | — |
| 0x9e24…7e71 | Yes | 205 | 22.7¢ | $42 | Proven+$2.42 per $100 · 701 bets |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | No | 20 | 79.4¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.17 per $100 · 13,909 bets |
| Flingflonger0xecef…4909 | No | 20 | 79.0¢ | $16 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 61 | 24.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 61 | 21.7¢ | $13 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| TrueThinker0x5742…50a6 | Yes | 45 | 21.7¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xa276…361e | Yes | 10 | 21.7¢ | $2 | — |
| Gandoron0x4e4b…88ce | Yes | 9 | 22.7¢ | $2 | — |
| GarthBroadmore0x8d97…fbd8 | Yes | 5 | 21.7¢ | $1 | Positive+$21.98 per $100 · 1,010 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 1 | 20.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 0 | 79.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.