Market · 6 of 6 outcomes
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 23:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 15 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GoriIIa0xfffa…864b | No | 12,074 | 92.2¢ | $11.9K | Proven+$2.39 per $100 · 414 bets |
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | No | 7,346 | 93.7¢ | $7.25K | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,050 bets |
| aff30xe52c…6924 | No | 7,030 | 85.3¢ | $6.94K | Proven+$2.95 per $100 · 276 bets |
| bryp123450x044a…f35e | No | 3,600 | 86.2¢ | $3.55K | New76 settled bets |
| Bukaj08890x5be7…1b1d | No | 3,491 | 86.4¢ | $3.44K | Positive+$1.97 per $100 · 245 bets |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 2,787 | 97.1¢ | $2.75K | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | No | 2,531 | 90.0¢ | $2.5K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,941 bets |
| AuthenticDemigod0x7487…fc0c | No | 2,039 | 87.3¢ | $2.01K | Positive+$1.29 per $100 · 346 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 2,000 | 93.3¢ | $1.97K | Positive+$1.21 per $100 · 794 bets |
| Alphax0xc781…59d7 | No | 1,947 | 83.9¢ | $1.92K | Losing−$2.00 per $100 · 1,639 bets |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | No | 1,500 | 85.8¢ | $1.48K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| Bukaj0x78ca…d326 | No | 1,163 | 86.5¢ | $1.15K | Proven+$2.58 per $100 · 141 bets |
| Madsolbro0x0e09…05bb | No | 1,133 | 88.6¢ | $1.12K | Losing−$5.70 per $100 · 124 bets |
| geowatch0x5645…5d21 | No | 1,088 | 92.2¢ | $1.07K | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 248 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 1,066 | 89.5¢ | $1.05K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,987 bets |
| chris19890x3e27…8346 | No | 1,064 | 94.2¢ | $1.05K | Proven+$13.69 per $100 · 209 bets |
| AlfredTheShiller0xcd6b…68f5 | No | 1,002 | 84.1¢ | $989 | Proven+$5.96 per $100 · 1,413 bets |
| Xzibit690x0af4…89b4 | No | 826 | 90.0¢ | $814 | Proven+$5.57 per $100 · 707 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 599 | 98.1¢ | $591 | Positive+$3.99 per $100 · 1,987 bets |
| SirHarryOakes0x5685…62e2 | No | 534 | 94.2¢ | $526 | Proven+$5.58 per $100 · 297 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 326 | 81.0¢ | $322 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| jk345a6bsdk0xdf6c…eb44 | No | 300 | 85.5¢ | $296 | Proven+$9.65 per $100 · 372 bets |
| onthewave0xc302…f388 | No | 260 | 96.2¢ | $257 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 201 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 16,263 | 6.8¢ | $220 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | No | 222 | 91.0¢ | $219 | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| datadash.XYZ0xe82f…a089 | No | 200 | 88.4¢ | $197 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 195 | 87.8¢ | $192 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 188 | 94.3¢ | $185 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 23,054 bets |
| greats0xc80d…1929 | No | 121 | 97.7¢ | $119 | — |
| yarrro0x4454…f6bf | No | 120 | 90.7¢ | $118 | Losing−$5.70 per $100 · 636 bets |
| EconomistOx0xf2a3…8a8d | No | 101 | 98.7¢ | $100 | — |
| lionsix0x272b…e303 | No | 100 | 98.7¢ | $99 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 228 bets |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | No | 100 | 80.0¢ | $99 | Positive+$6.45 per $100 · 7,374 bets |
| shazi999990xa61a…4581 | No | 100 | 91.3¢ | $99 | — |
| namemean0xb522…c04d | No | 100 | 98.1¢ | $99 | — |
| KariSpice0x08ab…3af9 | No | 100 | 80.0¢ | $99 | Proven+$2.60 per $100 · 589 bets |
| resultsave0x8774…ecda | No | 80 | 95.8¢ | $79 | — |
| whaleP10x5b1d…8895 | No | 78 | 90.3¢ | $77 | Losing−$5.71 per $100 · 587 bets |
| tnl0xb619…5068 | No | 71 | 81.6¢ | $71 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 1,250 bets |
| ka7ak0xad5c…3268 | Yes | 4,424 | 10.3¢ | $60 | — |
| racesdavid0x6990…1f8d | No | 60 | 98.7¢ | $59 | Break-even+$0.01 per $100 · 177 bets |
| create66660xc1d1…f1ba | No | 60 | 92.3¢ | $59 | — |
| Darkpopcorn0x7049…3dea | No | 60 | 96.7¢ | $59 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 286 bets |
| jeshtekpopierdolil0xff59…afea | No | 57 | 97.0¢ | $56 | — |
| 2d1d7318-b632-4243-bf81-f05a4105b6e40x0054…cf1f | No | 55 | 90.4¢ | $54 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 948 bets |
| who07040x910a…8ce5 | No | 55 | 98.8¢ | $54 | — |
| obevongraff0x0970…b44f | No | 55 | 97.0¢ | $54 | New31 settled bets |
| Sibarit870xf6fe…b5d1 | No | 55 | 90.4¢ | $54 | Losing−$19.52 per $100 · 139 bets |
| cake20410x7cf4…7fac | No | 50 | 97.9¢ | $49 | Positive+$1.06 per $100 · 183 bets |
| start58880x7f90…9968 | No | 50 | 84.5¢ | $49 | Losing−$1.12 per $100 · 122 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 50 | 85.0¢ | $49 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| willin140xbbf6…3e76 | No | 50 | 94.2¢ | $49 | — |
| geph0x90c8…9617 | Yes | 2,881 | 16.9¢ | $39 | Losing−$1.61 per $100 · 314 bets |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 2,606 | 2.7¢ | $35 | Positive+$42.20 per $100 · 2,803 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 2,307 | 18.0¢ | $31 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,062 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 2,233 | 7.0¢ | $30 | Positive+$7.48 per $100 · 10,703 bets |
| OfferLifter0x3a91…ac8f | Yes | 2,200 | 17.0¢ | $30 | Proven+$8.78 per $100 · 2,631 bets |
| 0xd29b…d17d | Yes | 1,600 | 4.2¢ | $22 | — |
| bebetter0x61ea…d0c1 | Yes | 1,500 | 17.8¢ | $20 | Losing−$12.95 per $100 · 941 bets |
| 0x6c1f…87fc | Yes | 1,256 | 13.1¢ | $17 | New11 settled bets |
| Bassmaker0x4c03…8e3b | Yes | 1,248 | 15.2¢ | $17 | New49 settled bets |
| lufei888880xa927…4847 | Yes | 1,176 | 17.6¢ | $16 | — |
| 0x221f…3c52 | Yes | 1,138 | 18.1¢ | $15 | New33 settled bets |
| GarthBroadmore0x8d97…fbd8 | Yes | 1,130 | 6.0¢ | $15 | Positive+$21.98 per $100 · 1,010 bets |
| TypeShi0x3df1…72e7 | Yes | 1,111 | 1.9¢ | $15 | Proven+$7.08 per $100 · 350 bets |
| RS20040xbd35…2bb6 | Yes | 1,071 | 15.4¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x2103…27fe | Yes | 1,006 | 6.2¢ | $14 | New19 settled bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | Yes | 1,000 | 1.8¢ | $13 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| EggiMon0x7a87…d5b2 | Yes | 968 | 11.4¢ | $13 | New0 settled bets |
| eremeevno0x9482…1c55 | Yes | 803 | 15.5¢ | $11 | — |
| wallet-account-test0xcaff…e3ad | Yes | 667 | 15.0¢ | $9 | — |
| LECKEIER20260x85d4…0cf8 | Yes | 617 | 13.3¢ | $8 | — |
| TrueThinker0x5742…50a6 | Yes | 588 | 1.8¢ | $8 | New0 settled bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 585 | 2.4¢ | $8 | Losing−$2.55 per $100 · 125,317+ bets · updating |
| 0x64b2…a9f8 | Yes | 520 | 14.5¢ | $7 | New17 settled bets |
| smellyEllie0x38f5…6824 | Yes | 500 | 8.0¢ | $7 | Proven+$13.22 per $100 · 3,556 bets |
| 0xfabf…b9f3 | Yes | 500 | 10.4¢ | $7 | — |
| MicMac670x90b9…06df | Yes | 473 | 10.1¢ | $6 | — |
| Ser-Wasabi0x7e6a…1cb8 | Yes | 467 | 11.1¢ | $6 | New35 settled bets |
| 0xec5b…27eb | Yes | 400 | 15.5¢ | $5 | — |
| amused850x8fe7…4f20 | Yes | 400 | 15.5¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.18 per $100 · 5,572 bets |
| Touge0x1c44…6c6b | Yes | 387 | 3.1¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 317 bets |
| 0xce5f…1912 | Yes | 350 | 20.6¢ | $5 | New41 settled bets |
| Hachiman760xcec2…0e3e | Yes | 347 | 16.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x7577…8fb9 | Yes | 305 | 16.7¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 210 bets |
| kewcet130x66eb…5f9e | Yes | 260 | 20.6¢ | $4 | New0 settled bets |
| 0x9a69…c2a0 | Yes | 260 | 2.0¢ | $4 | — |
| mirand0x9cf6…559d | Yes | 256 | 17.6¢ | $3 | Proven+$2.61 per $100 · 1,039 bets |
| himken0x115a…9d44 | Yes | 235 | 1.2¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.79 per $100 · 2,180 bets |
| BoB0x9ce0…b2ff | Yes | 205 | 17.3¢ | $3 | — |
| crypto-basenji0x72f7…92f7 | Yes | 200 | 16.5¢ | $3 | Proven+$3.16 per $100 · 466 bets |
| sandroxy0xd380…ef7c | Yes | 183 | 15.5¢ | $2 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 125 | 12.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xa276…361e | Yes | 112 | 1.8¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x2146…bb27 | Yes | 104 | 17.6¢ | $1 | New7 settled bets |
| MaSaSe0xb93e…0765 | Yes | 100 | 5.2¢ | $1 | — |
| pjotrekkk0xf102…1348 | Yes | 100 | 9.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.29 per $100 · 20,519 bets |
| keepingitral0xf26c…d5c5 | Yes | 100 | 9.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x3929…c3f2 | Yes | 88 | 18.2¢ | $1 | New38 settled bets |
| mswbs0x7f1a…5a5a | Yes | 82 | 17.6¢ | $1 | New0 settled bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.