Market · 19 of 19 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 18:25 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boss70x5409…79db | No | 15,000 | 99.9¢ | $15K | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 2,192 bets |
| CakeBake0x9d80…fcaf | No | 4,047 | 99.8¢ | $4.04K | — |
| decacepa0x2809…10dc | No | 2,443 | 99.8¢ | $2.44K | — |
| ncy119900x5951…92d2 | No | 400 | 99.7¢ | $400 | — |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | No | 293 | 99.4¢ | $293 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 6,870 bets |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | No | 250 | 99.0¢ | $250 | — |
| ffhjojodd0xbb36…24cc | No | 140 | 98.8¢ | $140 | — |
| liuliu6660xb56a…226b | No | 127 | 98.7¢ | $127 | — |
| liuamy0x0b84…f154 | No | 114 | 98.1¢ | $114 | — |
| 0xd938…7786 | No | 113 | 98.8¢ | $113 | — |
| gjkgfjfhkj0x72d3…95dd | No | 110 | 98.7¢ | $110 | — |
| 44amyliu0x9000…79dc | No | 110 | 98.8¢ | $110 | — |
| tugoiphh0xef68…2267 | No | 104 | 98.8¢ | $104 | — |
| Abdyl0x9505…5110 | No | 50 | 97.0¢ | $50 | — |
| nfxfegsd4dg0xcd13…56dc | No | 48 | 99.9¢ | $48 | — |
| adf48a0x0f7b…e363 | No | 25 | 99.9¢ | $25 | — |
| bahn-cuon-baby0x5cdc…1f6b | No | 21 | 96.5¢ | $21 | — |
| papala0x96f2…8d64 | No | 20 | 99.9¢ | $20 | — |
| yetee0x9855…bf6e | No | 20 | 99.8¢ | $20 | — |
| zx999a0xf0bf…1744 | No | 20 | 99.9¢ | $20 | — |
| UN-Sure0x8891…b5fc | No | 17 | 96.5¢ | $17 | — |
| xugui60xc054…b8fc | No | 13 | 99.6¢ | $13 | — |
| 954376556470x096b…340e | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 18,688 | 1.9¢ | $9 | Positive+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| LordYeah0xfd07…6bb7 | Yes | 17,935 | 0.2¢ | $9 | — |
| jnvcncf0x2114…814b | No | 5 | 99.8¢ | $5 | — |
| SDVC30x0edb…6cb9 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| DFHG40x15eb…980d | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| DFBVE0x1c50…b4c7 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| CRE40x1c7f…5377 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x2bcc…a218 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| GFD40x4d12…728b | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| DFERT40x5862…792a | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| EDFD30x6961…be88 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| HG54E0x760d…35ab | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| DFTD0x7726…1620 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| DFE34G0x7a6d…3a8c | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| GHF30x82b9…18f1 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| SDBV40x8438…82d2 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| DFEERT0x87dd…40b7 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| D43T0x87ec…866f | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| EREW30x8962…f0ae | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| SXCE40x953e…2798 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| oppppop0x9ee7…e901 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| FGDE30xa718…def3 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| IOPOL0xa81b…9d44 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| GFJHTR0xc4eb…3be6 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| EWRS30xc5be…a275 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| SDCVX0xcc98…b18f | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| DFSE450xd0f9…db0a | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xd6aa…fc15 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 8,000 | 0.1¢ | $4 | — |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 5,405 | 3.9¢ | $3 | — |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 50.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 4,042 bets |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 3,786 | 2.9¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.20 per $100 · 2,236 bets |
| Rizh0x9255…6e3b | Yes | 3,500 | 2.8¢ | $2 | — |
| hulitest20250xe559…1300 | Yes | 2,619 | 5.6¢ | $1 | — |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 2,482 | 0.5¢ | $1 | — |
| Fablurou0x3256…830c | Yes | 2,000 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 2,000 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.74 per $100 · 2,996 bets |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | Yes | 1,893 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| hirichzhou0x71f7…2e2e | Yes | 1,802 | 5.6¢ | $1 | — |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 1,801 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 1,691 | 1.7¢ | $1 | — |
| RickRockRick0x35f3…cfd0 | Yes | 1,440 | 2.8¢ | $1 | — |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 1,434 | 1.0¢ | $1 | — |
| sdfsd2130xf06d…26f7 | Yes | 1,229 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| norealtime0x56c2…6219 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$11.44 per $100 · 9,418 bets |
| ChunkyMonky0x8f66…b986 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| saragus0xf4d5…66e1 | Yes | 1,000 | 2.9¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 915 | 1.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 125,093 bets |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 800 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x13e4…d532 | Yes | 738 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x544e…86dc | Yes | 674 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Melao0x48a3…bfec | Yes | 520 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Etherapp0x9fac…3e5a | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 500 | 2.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.03 per $100 · 8,527 bets |
| AspectOfNightmares0x9ed3…bc84 | Yes | 499 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 212octopus0xbf8e…2f94 | Yes | 400 | 2.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x4eb9…97f7 | Yes | 333 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 309 | 5.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 300 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| MailAJ-Long-Term0xda4d…c8ee | Yes | 300 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 289 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| Owninimicus00xa2f0…3206 | Yes | 250 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 229 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 177 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 170 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Ocucumber0xe583…2d98 | Yes | 169 | 5.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Qatalyst0x65f7…86dd | Yes | 150 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-07171593452560x75cb…1556 | Yes | 150 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$81.55 per $100 · 22,315 bets |
| runzero0x54c0…a338 | Yes | 143 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x7a1f…9f05 | Yes | 134 | 1.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$29.41 per $100 · 123 bets |
| 0xa986…30f6 | Yes | 120 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 120 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 195,325 bets |
| owla0x0517…d513 | Yes | 100 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Ruiziness0x306d…7a38 | Yes | 100 | 3.2¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420080x79dc…ca77 | Yes | 100 | 4.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.10 per $100 · 5,361 bets |
| 0xfadb…e3dc | Yes | 100 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 92 overlapping windows · 11 events · $896K in play
Exactly one of this event's 19 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.