Market · 13 of 21 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 02:22 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AndreaPirlo0x09b4…e56d | No | 460 | 99.2¢ | $455 | — |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | No | 290 | 99.5¢ | $287 | — |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | No | 263 | 99.3¢ | $260 | Break-even+$0.76 per $100 · 6,861 bets |
| Fablurou0x3256…830c | Yes | 9,660 | 0.5¢ | $101 | — |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 7,733 | 1.2¢ | $81 | — |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 5,523 | 0.4¢ | $58 | — |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 5,405 | 3.9¢ | $57 | — |
| 0x2ef2…7f72 | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $53 | — |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 50 | 98.2¢ | $49 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 27,486 bets |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $42 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 4,037 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 36 | 99.2¢ | $36 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| gjhj66l0x737c…0318 | No | 35 | 99.4¢ | $35 | — |
| hjhlkjl0x81c5…8d32 | No | 32 | 99.2¢ | $32 | — |
| Rizh0x9255…6e3b | Yes | 3,000 | 1.8¢ | $32 | — |
| okokokl0x85a2…aa2a | No | 29 | 99.4¢ | $29 | — |
| fghklk880xeb3c…00d6 | No | 27 | 99.1¢ | $27 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | No | 23 | 99.6¢ | $23 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 2,000 | 2.5¢ | $21 | — |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 2,000 | 2.0¢ | $21 | — |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 2,000 | 3.8¢ | $21 | Losing−$6.67 per $100 · 2,990 bets |
| bahn-cuon-baby0x5cdc…1f6b | No | 21 | 97.1¢ | $20 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | Yes | 1,502 | 0.9¢ | $16 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 1,439 | 3.8¢ | $15 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| ChunkyMonky0x8f66…b986 | Yes | 1,337 | 2.4¢ | $14 | — |
| werden0x0ccf…e9d6 | No | 12 | 98.6¢ | $12 | — |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 1,136 | 0.8¢ | $12 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 1,000 | 2.0¢ | $11 | — |
| LordYeah0xfd07…6bb7 | Yes | 1,000 | 1.5¢ | $10 | — |
| LazyJohnX0x2f85…05ff | No | 10 | 99.6¢ | $10 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 900 | 3.9¢ | $9 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 567 | 1.9¢ | $6 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 124,565+ bets · updating |
| saragus0xf4d5…66e1 | Yes | 540 | 3.6¢ | $6 | — |
| Ruiziness0x306d…7a38 | Yes | 500 | 0.8¢ | $5 | — |
| orifcontex0xa002…e840 | Yes | 500 | 0.3¢ | $5 | — |
| TP19950xc575…38fd | Yes | 500 | 4.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 484 | 1.8¢ | $5 | Losing−$9.60 per $100 · 56,831+ bets · updating |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 333 | 2.5¢ | $3 | — |
| oboltusovao0x4a67…65c8 | Yes | 310 | 3.9¢ | $3 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 300 | 2.5¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 289 | 3.8¢ | $3 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,309 bets |
| 0x4eb9…97f7 | Yes | 250 | 0.4¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x544e…86dc | Yes | 219 | 0.4¢ | $2 | — |
| MailAJ-Long-Term0xda4d…c8ee | Yes | 200 | 1.2¢ | $2 | — |
| Yoyobinks0x5e6a…97f2 | Yes | 155 | 1.8¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xa986…30f6 | Yes | 120 | 3.9¢ | $1 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 120 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,710 bets |
| owla0x0517…d513 | Yes | 100 | 1.3¢ | $1 | — |
| Demet3r0x40e6…459f | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| MartinPNZ0xe130…4006 | Yes | 100 | 1.0¢ | $1 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 95 | 3.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| Roadto1Billion0x60b0…4a62 | Yes | 91 | 1.9¢ | $1 | New59 settled bets |
| rocky420080x79dc…ca77 | Yes | 72 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.10 per $100 · 5,361 bets |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 70 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 50 | 0.8¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| InfiniiteHorizon0x0431…1af9 | Yes | 50 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| S0llarFlare0x271e…b975 | Yes | 50 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| flyh1gher0x332e…0ae6 | Yes | 50 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| badpiterburg0x3d38…d4f1 | Yes | 50 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| s0lar1st0x4590…932e | Yes | 50 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 50 | 3.7¢ | $1 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| 0x9fee…d292 | Yes | 50 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| MiddnightWanderer0xe759…cf83 | Yes | 50 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| OsvaldoMarianao270xf939…43e1 | Yes | 50 | 2.2¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 91 overlapping windows · 10 events · $816K in play
Exactly one of this event's 21 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.