Market · 3 of 22 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:33 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 9,279 | 4.1¢ | $1.72K | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 5,405 | 3.9¢ | $1K | — |
| 0x2ef2…7f72 | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $925 | — |
| sebyastiens0xbc62…4f5e | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $925 | — |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $740 | Break-even+$0.76 per $100 · 4,032 bets |
| TweetPulse.Live0xbbdc…5d81 | Yes | 3,950 | 4.0¢ | $731 | — |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | No | 730 | 87.5¢ | $595 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 6,846 bets |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 2,863 | 3.8¢ | $530 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 2,650 | 6.3¢ | $490 | Losing−$6.67 per $100 · 2,990 bets |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 2,500 | 3.8¢ | $462 | — |
| LuckyMANNN0x59a1…a8d1 | Yes | 2,429 | 4.8¢ | $449 | — |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 2,000 | 2.0¢ | $370 | — |
| hirichzhou0x71f7…2e2e | Yes | 1,502 | 4.0¢ | $278 | — |
| BernandoNaty0xfab3…dee0 | No | 300 | 88.5¢ | $244 | — |
| juanbenquet0xf41c…43a6 | Yes | 1,303 | 14.1¢ | $241 | — |
| tradethemarket0xb7e0…2c57 | No | 245 | 82.4¢ | $200 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 1,000 | 3.9¢ | $185 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 1,000 | 2.0¢ | $185 | — |
| plymbus0xbbb3…037d | Yes | 856 | 17.6¢ | $158 | — |
| AM96910xc959…c37f | Yes | 769 | 13.6¢ | $142 | — |
| niceShare0x97ff…d095 | No | 150 | 80.0¢ | $122 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 120 | 90.5¢ | $98 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,452 bets |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 514 | 9.9¢ | $95 | — |
| TP19950xc575…38fd | Yes | 500 | 4.0¢ | $93 | — |
| kakdelaa0x2747…fa5a | Yes | 464 | 20.4¢ | $86 | — |
| sfdf780x736c…a3c9 | Yes | 455 | 11.5¢ | $84 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 80 | 87.0¢ | $65 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
| jooker20260x276a…d445 | No | 70 | 92.2¢ | $57 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 300 | 2.0¢ | $56 | — |
| TaigerTeam0xd928…23ca | Yes | 300 | 11.5¢ | $56 | — |
| Melook0xeabe…d6ed | Yes | 300 | 15.0¢ | $56 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 289 | 3.8¢ | $53 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 207 | 3.8¢ | $38 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| Rizh0x9255…6e3b | Yes | 200 | 19.8¢ | $37 | — |
| 0x9901…5815 | Yes | 200 | 13.6¢ | $37 | — |
| number250x0660…0ea7 | No | 43 | 87.3¢ | $35 | — |
| XXHXX0xe372…72ec | Yes | 179 | 17.1¢ | $33 | — |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 170 | 2.0¢ | $31 | — |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | Yes | 162 | 11.5¢ | $30 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 34 | 82.0¢ | $28 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| IronByte0x9484…a173 | Yes | 150 | 13.6¢ | $28 | — |
| saragus0xf4d5…66e1 | Yes | 150 | 13.3¢ | $28 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 146 | 13.6¢ | $27 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 252,445+ bets · updating |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | Yes | 127 | 11.1¢ | $24 | — |
| Melao0x48a3…bfec | Yes | 125 | 7.0¢ | $23 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 120 | 6.2¢ | $22 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| pendulum02060x98d6…51dc | Yes | 119 | 12.0¢ | $22 | — |
| rockat0x699b…0296 | Yes | 103 | 13.4¢ | $19 | — |
| justwant50xbc13…5578 | Yes | 100 | 4.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Demet3r0x40e6…459f | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $19 | — |
| b3t4t35t0xab18…467d | Yes | 100 | 19.8¢ | $19 | — |
| MarsBABY0xeb6d…2294 | Yes | 97 | 13.7¢ | $18 | — |
| 0xcd0f…2154 | No | 21 | 88.8¢ | $17 | — |
| Ronke0xb603…58fe | Yes | 84 | 19.8¢ | $15 | — |
| KayaTibet0x9247…02fb | Yes | 75 | 9.8¢ | $14 | — |
| Blueynbingo0x52aa…42a2 | No | 16 | 92.4¢ | $13 | — |
| bbynepo0x37b6…661f | Yes | 63 | 12.5¢ | $12 | — |
| wljn001110xc14f…0ee1 | Yes | 60 | 16.7¢ | $11 | — |
| JustThink0x3958…938f | Yes | 56 | 16.7¢ | $10 | New67 settled bets |
| sange1110x87a9…4bdf | Yes | 52 | 15.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Qatalyst0x65f7…86dd | Yes | 50 | 3.8¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x60ea…d120 | No | 7 | 82.7¢ | $6 | — |
| Adam11110x72b5…8b54 | No | 5 | 88.5¢ | $4 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 16 | 3.8¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| Punch0x94af…acee | No | 2 | 84.7¢ | $2 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 10 | 3.8¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x546a…1988 | No | 2 | 88.5¢ | $2 | Losing−$6.15 per $100 · 42,787+ bets · updating |
| crescidentialsuite0xd25d…4540 | No | 1 | 88.5¢ | $1 | — |
| xwe334d0x2029…3b5d | No | 1 | 89.5¢ | $1 | — |
| WanderingPanda0x74ff…be5b | Yes | 2 | 17.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 0 | 84.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 0 | 87.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.