Market
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:34 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curv-0750xd1a4…cedc | No | 105 | 99.9¢ | $105 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 30 | 97.0¢ | $30 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| 0x8daa…a2cd | No | 26 | 99.5¢ | $26 | — |
| allaponomareva0x4f2e…28f0 | No | 26 | 96.6¢ | $26 | New58 settled bets |
| annakukus0xecaf…457e | No | 24 | 98.7¢ | $24 | — |
| 0x5d1a…ce21 | No | 18 | 99.6¢ | $18 | — |
| 0xa7ea…e4ac | No | 11 | 99.4¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x4c38…8c65 | No | 11 | 99.8¢ | $11 | — |
| PIMP-6130xa9e1…40da | No | 10 | 99.9¢ | $10 | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 0 | 94.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 61,574 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| failstober0x90ed…b5bc | Yes | 22,222 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Proven+$8.51 per $100 · 1,182 bets |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 11,058 | 5.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| jsjsnxxn0xe122…0b62 | Yes | 9,603 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 7,150 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| orifcontex0xa002…e840 | Yes | 3,700 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| hurryGarry0xd78f…b76d | Yes | 3,671 | 2.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 3,500 | 12.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.67 per $100 · 2,990 bets |
| Sugarina0x8288…5519 | Yes | 3,000 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Papuasus0x9034…4375 | Yes | 2,494 | 4.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf452…8ff9 | Yes | 2,489 | 1.2¢ | $0 | — |
| MilkTeaa0xd3ce…b432 | Yes | 2,457 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| sebyastiens0xbc62…4f5e | Yes | 2,162 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sjoerdvdmack0xe53d…146c | Yes | 1,617 | 12.4¢ | $0 | — |
| ChunkyMonky0x8f66…b986 | Yes | 1,520 | 4.3¢ | $0 | — |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | Yes | 1,249 | 2.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 1,183 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.96 per $100 · 18,816 bets |
| nald250x72aa…4cc5 | Yes | 1,071 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| DvePlotnieBanki0xfec7…ae1c | Yes | 1,023 | 5.1¢ | $0 | — |
| norealtime0x56c2…6219 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$11.38 per $100 · 9,404 bets |
| latysh0x6ce0…5f11 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| LordYeah0xfd07…6bb7 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 743 | 2.9¢ | $0 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 669 | 1.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| 0x9901…5815 | Yes | 650 | 8.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 7kent7770xdf8b…481e | Yes | 600 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 524 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| pendulum02060x98d6…51dc | Yes | 458 | 12.8¢ | $0 | — |
| northdrawer0xfd55…f905 | Yes | 453 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Eglunnd0xad9f…9971 | Yes | 410 | 3.7¢ | $0 | — |
| aEpTcH7MFw0xe52c…9dcb | Yes | 400 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| MartinPNZ0xe130…4006 | Yes | 400 | 6.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 123mohan0x3758…5c70 | Yes | 373 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| bibbi0x5312…9e9b | Yes | 317 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Ruiziness0x306d…7a38 | Yes | 300 | 2.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 293 | 0.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
| badpiterburg0x3d38…d4f1 | Yes | 290 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| justwant50xbc13…5578 | Yes | 247 | 5.8¢ | $0 | — |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | Yes | 245 | 12.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 223 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| cohorts0xbb5a…1537 | Yes | 220 | 12.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Oboltusova0xfb2b…cadf | Yes | 215 | 4.9¢ | $0 | — |
| jargon06060xf61f…1cf3 | Yes | 202 | 14.1¢ | $0 | — |
| baikong0xe19a…a07f | Yes | 200 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Mr-Lucker0xaee7…37fe | Yes | 200 | 1.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x544e…86dc | Yes | 200 | 2.3¢ | $0 | — |
| stabe0x69a7…abd6 | Yes | 200 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| annoyinglowie0xbfc6…ce6b | Yes | 200 | 4.2¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 194 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Greedtookover0x3fcc…5c9b | Yes | 187 | 4.5¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420060x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | 105 | 4.1¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 75 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 11 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 11 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.