Market · 5 of 22 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in October 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 01:14 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa169…1b73 | No | 39 | 99.3¢ | $39 | — |
| sange1110x87a9…4bdf | Yes | 2,737 | 9.4¢ | $34 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 2,342 | 2.3¢ | $29 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 20 | 99.2¢ | $20 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,710 bets |
| mktestmm0x5904…940f | No | 18 | 98.2¢ | $18 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 12 | 98.0¢ | $12 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| poposd0xf512…0985 | No | 11 | 98.3¢ | $11 | — |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | No | 10 | 86.0¢ | $10 | — |
| asdfasdfasdf340x48c5…10fc | No | 10 | 86.0¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 10,798 bets |
| asdfasdf111120xaf53…ca3b | No | 10 | 86.0¢ | $10 | — |
| asdfasdddd44120xe9cd…be3f | No | 10 | 86.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 770 | 3.4¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| vamnizar0xaf46…8c1d | Yes | 532 | 10.5¢ | $7 | — |
| 84sfs0x4b4c…c67d | No | 6 | 86.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 87sdgfds0xec52…a4a4 | No | 6 | 87.0¢ | $6 | — |
| Panopticon0070x07cf…a9fa | Yes | 418 | 5.5¢ | $5 | Proven+$3.68 per $100 · 1,872 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 354 | 1.9¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 124,511+ bets · updating |
| mcsg0x4d3d…5047 | Yes | 200 | 8.4¢ | $2 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 174 | 2.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| BenjiPredicts0x9f5e…343c | Yes | 111 | 9.5¢ | $1 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 102 | 7.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 83 | 1.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4e72…ffb9 | No | 1 | 92.3¢ | $1 | — |
| justwant50xbc13…5578 | Yes | 62 | 9.5¢ | $1 | — |
| Etherapp0x9fac…3e5a | Yes | 57 | 3.6¢ | $1 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 1 | 90.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| Mithbuster0x7e64…e225 | Yes | 53 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Lookingaround-3820x6c50…ccc6 | Yes | 51 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| babyalgo0x0a3a…e990 | Yes | 50 | 1.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb90x6891…6bb9 | Yes | 50 | 7.0¢ | $1 | — |
| himken0x115a…9d44 | Yes | 40 | 2.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.27 per $100 · 2,058 bets |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | Yes | 38 | 13.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 9,815 bets |
| Kot.ua0x770a…0eca | Yes | 38 | 8.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 83afaf0x7b38…b187 | Yes | 32 | 15.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xccb7…e922 | Yes | 31 | 16.7¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 99.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 128,047 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 24 | 9.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,989 bets |
| OsvaldoMarianao270xf939…43e1 | Yes | 23 | 22.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x7003…7ca4 | Yes | 22 | 9.4¢ | $0 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 20 | 14.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 17 | 6.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 15 | 13.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.62 per $100 · 411,170 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 10 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,906 bets |
| Yoyobinks0x5e6a…97f2 | Yes | 10 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 10 | 8.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x5221…bd4d | Yes | 9 | 12.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Elon33130xe6cf…04fe | Yes | 9 | 12.5¢ | $0 | — |
| MankuJ0x6634…06c1 | Yes | 8 | 12.5¢ | $0 | — |
| damirjan0x736e…7101 | Yes | 8 | 12.5¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 0 | 86.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 78.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Fuadkrm70x77d5…eace | Yes | 3 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 1 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| pykue0xa45f…d6cb | Yes | 1 | 11.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 91.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 88dfhf0xeed8…679c | Yes | 1 | 15.5¢ | $0 | — |
| needleladder0x4462…bfdf | Yes | 1 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 0 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.91 per $100 · 158,885+ bets · updating |
| sdfsdfsdfsdf20x321e…9292 | Yes | 0 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.75 per $100 · 16,321 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 91 overlapping windows · 10 events · $816K in play
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.