Market · 7 of 21 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in October 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 03:07 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa169…1b73 | No | 39 | 99.8¢ | $39 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 32 | 95.0¢ | $31 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| mktestmm0x5904…940f | No | 18 | 97.5¢ | $18 | — |
| poposd0xf512…0985 | No | 10 | 99.3¢ | $10 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 1,633 | 2.2¢ | $9 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| vamnizar0xaf46…8c1d | Yes | 1,020 | 2.3¢ | $6 | — |
| 84sfs0x4b4c…c67d | No | 6 | 89.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 87sdgfds0xec52…a4a4 | No | 5 | 91.0¢ | $5 | — |
| wert40x46f7…ded2 | No | 5 | 95.2¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 8,515 bets |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 741 | 2.1¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| 0xM11tsuki0x7c2c…407e | Yes | 741 | 0.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$219.08 per $100 · 3,102 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 689 | 3.3¢ | $4 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 650 | 1.5¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 521 | 2.3¢ | $3 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| sange1110x87a9…4bdf | Yes | 482 | 5.0¢ | $3 | — |
| mit1200x71db…aba8 | No | 2 | 92.4¢ | $2 | — |
| Panopticon0070x07cf…a9fa | Yes | 310 | 2.5¢ | $2 | Proven+$3.68 per $100 · 1,872 bets |
| sanduspace0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | 200 | 0.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$44.40 per $100 · 11,985 bets |
| Trader1200x3de6…e560 | Yes | 194 | 0.8¢ | $1 | Losing−$4.33 per $100 · 27,167 bets |
| 0x4e72…ffb9 | No | 1 | 94.8¢ | $1 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 166 | 7.8¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| Etherapp0x9fac…3e5a | Yes | 163 | 1.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 2200FCA4fE3bAb3706522A8F4436B7656911474f.0x2200…474f | Yes | 150 | 0.8¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 142 | 3.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 124,565+ bets · updating |
| Badekarret0xe343…23fd | Yes | 125 | 0.7¢ | $1 | — |
| himken0x115a…9d44 | Yes | 116 | 2.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.27 per $100 · 2,058 bets |
| 0xa775…334e | Yes | 96 | 2.7¢ | $1 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 80 | 1.3¢ | $0 | — |
| justwant50xbc13…5578 | Yes | 62 | 4.8¢ | $0 | — |
| babyalgo0x0a3a…e990 | Yes | 50 | 1.1¢ | $0 | — |
| coolibin0x55c1…7db6 | Yes | 50 | 2.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$29.26 per $100 · 245 bets |
| 0x7003…7ca4 | Yes | 48 | 4.4¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 46 | 2.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 83afaf0x7b38…b187 | Yes | 46 | 5.4¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 30 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 128,061 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 28 | 4.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,990 bets |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | Yes | 27 | 6.6¢ | $0 | — |
| amman0x3d48…4385 | Yes | 22 | 4.8¢ | $0 | — |
| hallways0xa989…bb4d | Yes | 22 | 4.9¢ | $0 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 21 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,917 bets |
| OsvaldoMarianao270xf939…43e1 | Yes | 20 | 5.2¢ | $0 | — |
| jackli0030x550f…7dad | Yes | 20 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| ahlook0x7733…26d5 | Yes | 17 | 6.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Yoyobinks0x5e6a…97f2 | Yes | 10 | 2.4¢ | $0 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 10 | 4.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 88dfhf0xeed8…679c | Yes | 4 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 93.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 0 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.91 per $100 · 158,885+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 91 overlapping windows · 10 events · $816K in play
Exactly one of this event's 21 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.