Market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 22:01 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0e53…52bc | No | 22 | 99.6¢ | $22 | Break-even+$0.51 per $100 · 176 bets |
| 0x4714…e9cf | No | 20 | 99.8¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xeee8…87fa | No | 17 | 99.5¢ | $17 | — |
| ElonSimp0xfbcb…bb5d | No | 1 | 90.8¢ | $1 | — |
| sanliparaguay0x45f6…f6a5 | No | 0 | 95.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xcd0f…2154 | No | 0 | 89.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.01 per $100 · 18,911 bets |
| 0xa169…1b73 | No | 0 | 98.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 0 | 92.1¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 21,574 | 2.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Sugarina0x8288…5519 | Yes | 3,000 | 5.6¢ | $0 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 2,138 | 6.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| InsideR50x17f1…0528 | Yes | 1,782 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 1,287 | 12.5¢ | $0 | — |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 1,106 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.91 per $100 · 158,800 bets |
| amy8880xc3cf…51d2 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| yangleduoduo0xe243…af59 | Yes | 964 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Mr-Lucker0xaee7…37fe | Yes | 877 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x6353…9502 | Yes | 820 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 794 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd572…7377 | Yes | 740 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 716 | 3.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,298 bets |
| exp7incher0x29b5…a992 | Yes | 700 | 5.6¢ | $0 | — |
| broitsravi0x7413…4b09 | Yes | 607 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xef24…a44d | Yes | 591 | 8.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Kamenshyk220x93fd…7e2f | Yes | 500 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2d2d…21c1 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| bbynepo0x37b6…661f | Yes | 415 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 412 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,980 bets |
| 0xaeb4…0e54 | Yes | 402 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Mommy0070xdc36…8542 | Yes | 401 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 267 | 8.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd17a…3eac | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| SupremeGambler0xf2bf…66c7 | Yes | 239 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| redstar19870x9ffa…c8fc | Yes | 200 | 1.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.86 per $100 · 2,922 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 198 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 165 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| liq20x3423…fe57 | Yes | 155 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | Yes | 150 | 3.7¢ | $0 | — |
| pjkeith0x2201…5674 | Yes | 143 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| rvamador0xfbf0…afc9 | Yes | 143 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| xibazaizi0xd487…ddd9 | Yes | 114 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Oboltusova0xfb2b…cadf | Yes | 110 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| ghghgghghghghhghghh8880xaa50…3ed5 | Yes | 109 | 4.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x13e4…d532 | Yes | 106 | 4.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x482f…53f7 | Yes | 100 | 5.2¢ | $0 | — |
| stabe0x69a7…abd6 | Yes | 100 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Etherapp0x9fac…3e5a | Yes | 97 | 1.1¢ | $0 | — |
| MartinPNZ0xe130…4006 | Yes | 80 | 1.1¢ | $0 | — |
| oboltusovao0x4a67…65c8 | Yes | 75 | 11.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Qatalyst0x65f7…86dd | Yes | 50 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | Yes | 45 | 9.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 9,815 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 35 | 9.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 27 | 0.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 30,110 bets |
| FunchetaKush0x5e83…665b | Yes | 25 | 12.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Wachufleiba880xa255…2ffc | Yes | 20 | 5.1¢ | $0 | — |
| whereismymoney0x6d6b…0420 | Yes | 20 | 10.8¢ | $0 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 20 | 4.6¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 91 overlapping windows · 10 events · $768K in play