Market · 8 of 15 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
5-Year Treasury Yield Peak · 2026 · 2 events · $48.8K in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTKK0x7e01…63be | No | 2,159 | 7.7¢ | $2.11K | Positive+$1.29 per $100 · 1,223 bets |
| commeowder0xd06f…d4a6 | No | 2,086 | 95.4¢ | $2.04K | Proven+$3.25 per $100 · 2,064 bets |
| DeadLimper0x9ad7…9075 | No | 285 | 90.7¢ | $279 | — |
| 0xB16B00B50x8a7b…782f | No | 200 | 88.5¢ | $196 | — |
| 0x66be…f30e | No | 200 | 91.4¢ | $195 | — |
| Itami0x9180…fb11 | No | 143 | 7.0¢ | $140 | — |
| danduka0x238a…105f | No | 123 | 61.1¢ | $120 | New18 settled bets |
| plsnothackme0xc291…30ab | No | 95 | 83.5¢ | $93 | Positive+$4.46 per $100 · 303 bets |
| ocktavius0x97e1…7efa | No | 55 | 93.7¢ | $54 | — |
| gregnanny0x4083…05e5 | No | 53 | 0.0¢ | $52 | — |
| diddydid0xc85c…36c7 | No | 53 | 0.0¢ | $52 | — |
| chefradish0xd1ee…a8ae | No | 51 | 96.1¢ | $50 | — |
| januarysnake0x6d02…86d7 | No | 47 | 42.8¢ | $46 | — |
| Newshound0x5e73…6697 | Yes | 1,610 | 9.0¢ | $35 | Proven+$5.54 per $100 · 1,941 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 25 | 89.5¢ | $24 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| ng60000x6ffd…a637 | No | 24 | 48.6¢ | $24 | Positive+$6.39 per $100 · 7,738 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 23 | 13.3¢ | $22 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | No | 20 | 49.8¢ | $20 | — |
| singaporesling0xfa8f…d61b | Yes | 681 | 89.6¢ | $15 | Losing−$19.40 per $100 · 617 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 611 | 2.3¢ | $13 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 600 | 5.3¢ | $13 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| lyoo12100x1abe…f19f | No | 13 | 87.6¢ | $13 | Losing−$9.26 per $100 · 727 bets |
| Lyf4ever0xcd2f…fe3e | No | 13 | 8.0¢ | $13 | — |
| 0xf829…91ec | No | 11 | 93.7¢ | $10 | — |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | No | 10 | 87.7¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x2de2…f1a0 | No | 8 | 95.1¢ | $8 | — |
| seac0xbe90…acb5 | No | 8 | 11.3¢ | $7 | — |
| Wesa77770x8eef…244d | No | 7 | 27.1¢ | $7 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 309 | 3.1¢ | $7 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| kookies970x78d0…a337 | No | 7 | 2.5¢ | $7 | — |
| 65sfds0x783e…5a19 | No | 6 | 0.0¢ | $6 | — |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | No | 5 | 88.2¢ | $5 | — |
| pizdi.bolyu0x27b9…90d0 | No | 5 | 56.2¢ | $5 | Losing−$10.49 per $100 · 1,464 bets |
| kotyakayebaka0xefe9…b8ec | No | 5 | 55.0¢ | $5 | — |
| ganjubas220xdbb8…f7de | No | 5 | 19.1¢ | $5 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 200 | 3.6¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| 25oodksmsss090x3bef…f04e | No | 4 | 56.3¢ | $4 | — |
| Lashibucapiguyonghand0x78b3…a139 | Yes | 178 | 2.9¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xbada…d874 | Yes | 178 | 12.0¢ | $4 | — |
| artfulautist0xc9ba…556a | No | 4 | 15.0¢ | $4 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | No | 4 | 37.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,514 bets |
| IrthBirth0xc092…5428 | No | 3 | 49.3¢ | $3 | — |
| BobbyBakedBeans0x8728…0882 | Yes | 129 | 5.2¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x6b26…cf9a | No | 3 | 4.9¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x5533…51ba | Yes | 111 | 1.7¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.29 per $100 · 18,335 bets |
| varch010x0362…449e | Yes | 100 | 89.9¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 13,124 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 94 | 15.3¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xac38…c565 | Yes | 92 | 8.2¢ | $2 | — |
| Pre-rich-dude0x07e0…1db9 | Yes | 88 | 3.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.86 per $100 · 831 bets |
| 0xf41d…5e45 | No | 2 | 16.2¢ | $2 | — |
| title10xbe74…a70e | Yes | 66 | 1.5¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.92 per $100 · 7,460 bets |
| Terrence19920xc094…c8d4 | Yes | 51 | 2.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$4.45 per $100 · 2,984 bets |
| chaosj890xf085…02af | Yes | 48 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 5,508 bets |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | 46 | 16.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| rocky420140xbb9f…557b | Yes | 45 | 8.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 41 | 28.7¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,043 bets |
| chaosj880xca12…ea03 | Yes | 39 | 2.7¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.86 per $100 · 3,013 bets |
| explorer2210x7fa5…7621 | Yes | 37 | 38.4¢ | $1 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | No | 1 | 13.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| p3eFbv0H3b0x0603…8f62 | Yes | 30 | 60.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x1411…2410 | Yes | 30 | 9.7¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.28 per $100 · 354 bets |
| AmandaMiller28620x22f2…90d7 | Yes | 30 | 77.3¢ | $1 | — |
| galhammerman0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | 27 | 2.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 88mnm880x3b1a…4221 | Yes | 23 | 72.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xc59f…59ab | Yes | 22 | 50.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1f27…bf7f | Yes | 21 | 9.9¢ | $0 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 21 | 10.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 20 | 13.1¢ | $0 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 20 | 17.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| canbane0xafd7…f634 | Yes | 20 | 90.2¢ | $0 | — |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | Yes | 20 | 12.0¢ | $0 | — |
| TerranSupremacy0x4916…f56f | Yes | 13 | 72.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe882…b2fd | Yes | 12 | 82.1¢ | $0 | — |
| TikiTikiTiki0xceb7…4909 | Yes | 12 | 6.4¢ | $0 | — |
| easyautomate0xd069…d078 | Yes | 11 | 16.3¢ | $0 | — |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | Yes | 11 | 10.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf22b…7eab | Yes | 10 | 7.9¢ | $0 | — |
| SaucePolly10x2869…527d | Yes | 8 | 68.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xdc46…4fb8 | Yes | 7 | 45.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 52adsa0x5146…ac5e | Yes | 5 | 19.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Thunderpando0xee91…7eb9 | Yes | 4 | 69.8¢ | $0 | — |
| GarciaLoganss0x0ffe…1b1d | Yes | 4 | 97.5¢ | $0 | — |
| hitfar0x16b4…168f | Yes | 4 | 62.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$11.02 per $100 · 1,018 bets |
| 86fgh0x2213…e5de | Yes | 3 | 0.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 283 bets |
| uZilawule0xd1b3…5d8a | Yes | 2 | 90.0¢ | $0 | — |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | No | 0 | 83.1¢ | $0 | — |
| trekker130x6b9d…868e | Yes | 2 | 50.3¢ | $0 | — |
| R19hehe0xd0ae…73dd | No | 0 | 4.4¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 0 | 91.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5 | No | 0 | 23.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x4bac…5e79 | No | 0 | 70.8¢ | $0 | — |
| polesk88880x7a5c…767b | No | 0 | 84.0¢ | $0 | — |
| the-260-Challenge0xcb58…ccd0 | No | 0 | 84.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 7.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,584 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.