Market · 2 of 14 outcomes
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 10:07 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iutwpfal0xb89f…1c44 | No | 2,692 | 82.8¢ | $2.37K | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 1,531 bets |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | No | 1,728 | 69.0¢ | $1.52K | Proven+$10.79 per $100 · 1,662 bets |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate0x7365…64da | No | 1,641 | 66.6¢ | $1.44K | Proven+$13.23 per $100 · 1,217 bets |
| dedidanc0x11f8…ed31 | No | 1,291 | 83.6¢ | $1.14K | Positive+$13.76 per $100 · 241 bets |
| Hannah-Montana0x521b…db60 | No | 1,136 | 73.8¢ | $999 | — |
| CompulsiveGambler0xe0f1…c4bd | No | 849 | 71.1¢ | $747 | Proven+$5.10 per $100 · 1,724 bets |
| sssshishiga0xc5d4…08fc | No | 462 | 70.1¢ | $407 | — |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | No | 310 | 67.8¢ | $273 | — |
| lamyk0xc004…c095 | No | 302 | 73.5¢ | $266 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 300 | 69.6¢ | $264 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 876 bets |
| bmtr0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | 1,909 | 28.2¢ | $229 | — |
| m33zy0xcb7e…28dd | Yes | 1,753 | 30.1¢ | $210 | — |
| Ogre-Magi0x99f0…649f | No | 223 | 69.7¢ | $196 | — |
| hellovinci10xbf76…02b8 | Yes | 1,068 | 34.7¢ | $128 | — |
| MineYours0xe096…be8e | Yes | 1,000 | 17.0¢ | $120 | — |
| parameter10xae91…0f69 | No | 131 | 84.4¢ | $115 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 121 | 73.1¢ | $106 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,994 bets |
| banestow0x3080…337b | Yes | 796 | 29.5¢ | $95 | Losing−$20.74 per $100 · 495 bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | 720 | 10.9¢ | $86 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,246 bets |
| cd30gfu530p00xfd5a…aa7a | No | 89 | 71.5¢ | $78 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 1,176 bets |
| PMTraderAdam0x1547…d066 | No | 80 | 80.0¢ | $71 | Proven+$2.64 per $100 · 1,416 bets |
| qcp110x2184…00df | No | 77 | 70.1¢ | $68 | Proven+$24.90 per $100 · 369 bets |
| crop?0xe308…309c | Yes | 549 | 26.1¢ | $66 | — |
| Cryonic0xf0f6…3836 | No | 74 | 68.5¢ | $65 | — |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | Yes | 510 | 29.4¢ | $61 | Positive+$1.42 per $100 · 3,277 bets |
| dgfd760x191e…ef6b | No | 69 | 70.8¢ | $61 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 506 | 17.1¢ | $61 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| gummy-usb0xdf81…697d | No | 69 | 69.5¢ | $61 | — |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd0x5446…18f6 | Yes | 490 | 24.6¢ | $59 | Proven+$10.89 per $100 · 903 bets |
| bananabreakfast0xe338…64ad | Yes | 437 | 13.8¢ | $52 | — |
| cat67670x124a…3741 | No | 59 | 70.0¢ | $52 | Proven+$3.04 per $100 · 487 bets |
| NOPH0x2412…f534 | Yes | 400 | 29.0¢ | $48 | New49 settled bets |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5 | No | 46 | 71.0¢ | $40 | Losing−$6.12 per $100 · 2,243 bets |
| plusdome0xb6c7…c0e2 | Yes | 300 | 29.1¢ | $36 | Proven+$2.62 per $100 · 2,138 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 277 | 12.5¢ | $33 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 124,761+ bets · updating |
| agentcal0x42b7…abff | No | 28 | 73.7¢ | $25 | Break-even+$0.64 per $100 · 4,615 bets |
| paprikc0x909b…4e60 | Yes | 206 | 16.5¢ | $25 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 26 | 70.9¢ | $23 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | No | 23 | 83.6¢ | $20 | Losing−$7.62 per $100 · 411,170 bets |
| sand10x34d0…264e | No | 20 | 69.9¢ | $18 | — |
| nasos.pap0x81b4…a888 | Yes | 134 | 10.4¢ | $16 | — |
| 0x6c05…c270 | No | 15 | 83.0¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xf685…1ddc | No | 14 | 71.5¢ | $12 | — |
| Sheehave0x84a6…29ce | Yes | 94 | 32.9¢ | $11 | Proven+$15.02 per $100 · 127 bets |
| 0x3ee4…4cca | Yes | 87 | 35.4¢ | $10 | — |
| dropmeplease0x758b…0a1c | No | 12 | 81.0¢ | $10 | — |
| oxb2a309A61ca9eD5DB26e9FDDa3a19fF4aE3a79e00xb2a3…79e0 | No | 11 | 71.0¢ | $10 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 11 | 90.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,471 bets |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 80 | 43.6¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,048 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 78 | 13.9¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| alexdf0x84a0…928e | Yes | 77 | 32.1¢ | $9 | New26 settled bets |
| rpontici0x34af…bd55 | Yes | 67 | 28.0¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 1,164 bets |
| StormRazer0xa937…4152 | No | 8 | 71.8¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x59dd…fc7d | No | 7 | 77.0¢ | $6 | — |
| Obibobi0x6aa9…831f | No | 7 | 62.0¢ | $6 | — |
| cptjudge0xbec3…760e | No | 7 | 76.7¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xa099…8943 | Yes | 47 | 43.6¢ | $6 | — |
| ebben0xc646…b985 | Yes | 40 | 10.4¢ | $5 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 5 | 84.0¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 88,011+ bets · updating |
| protonboy0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | 37 | 14.1¢ | $4 | — |
| dixonmias0x3c1e…58fe | No | 5 | 71.8¢ | $4 | — |
| mdgc0xdc3f…f038 | No | 5 | 52.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xca3e…c9ff | Yes | 32 | 31.6¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x278f…e428 | No | 4 | 69.9¢ | $4 | — |
| wildboar080xb260…9d59 | Yes | 31 | 32.9¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x1a7b…c5f8 | No | 4 | 71.8¢ | $4 | — |
| marketgravity0xae73…09fa | No | 4 | 46.0¢ | $3 | — |
| gdragon880x70c7…92fe | Yes | 25 | 41.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | 20 | 11.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$33.83 per $100 · 567 bets |
| mrmuller0x975d…01be | Yes | 20 | 12.0¢ | $2 | — |
| chopwood0xb886…3024 | Yes | 20 | 44.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x3193…cc5a | Yes | 16 | 19.6¢ | $2 | — |
| Firedigger0xbcba…4573 | Yes | 15 | 33.9¢ | $2 | — |
| Richardbelmex0x1eae…96e6 | Yes | 14 | 14.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x2130…ffb2 | No | 2 | 67.2¢ | $1 | — |
| grungeee0xa6b3…c1ea | No | 2 | 66.9¢ | $1 | — |
| tokenium0x471c…9e94 | Yes | 11 | 25.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.35 per $100 · 610 bets |
| BASSATS010xe4ca…1383 | Yes | 11 | 31.0¢ | $1 | — |
| robszm0x04ba…bb60 | Yes | 10 | 28.8¢ | $1 | — |
| gawkgawk0x78d4…c133 | Yes | 10 | 31.9¢ | $1 | — |
| jensond0xa9b7…f43c | Yes | 10 | 39.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Frosty20xf915…0c01 | No | 1 | 82.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x7dd7…91cd | Yes | 9 | 34.9¢ | $1 | — |
| dij10x77bd…e48f | Yes | 8 | 39.0¢ | $1 | — |
| voyage2000xd1c6…3130 | Yes | 6 | 18.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Mtothej0xd5f7…a703 | Yes | 6 | 18.6¢ | $1 | — |
| warptrading0x6f08…54d3 | Yes | 5 | 56.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.09 per $100 · 10,198 bets |
| 0xb9df…3fa2 | Yes | 5 | 36.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 33771000x1769…67c2 | Yes | 5 | 43.0¢ | $1 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 5 | 49.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$8.68 per $100 · 128,249 bets |
| deepsleep0x8394…8d66 | Yes | 5 | 18.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.26 per $100 · 368 bets |
| prjjfb340xfd99…b908 | No | 1 | 80.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x3fea…96a4 | Yes | 4 | 24.8¢ | $1 | — |
| meow-1230x0739…aba8 | No | 0 | 74.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9161…fb65 | No | 0 | 71.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 48xsds0x0446…cc69 | Yes | 2 | 42.0¢ | $0 | — |
| trader-04ad8cb00x04ad…adb4 | No | 0 | 67.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 15.4¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
#1 AI Model Company · End of December 2026 · 2 events · $39.2K in play