Market · 1 of 6 outcomes
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:51 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 1,356 | 71.6¢ | $651 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,620 bets |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate0x7365…64da | Yes | 1,163 | 18.5¢ | $605 | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 646 | 58.0¢ | $310 | Losing−$2.67 per $100 · 123,278+ bets · updating |
| 0x4025…3644 | Yes | 477 | 41.2¢ | $248 | — |
| WunnaWun0xe562…4fa9 | Yes | 321 | 30.2¢ | $167 | — |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | No | 335 | 60.0¢ | $161 | — |
| Rumpelstiltskin0xfb1b…a11d | No | 307 | 55.8¢ | $147 | — |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | Yes | 202 | 11.4¢ | $105 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 146 bets |
| Banditoes0xe7fe…24e5 | Yes | 180 | 36.0¢ | $94 | — |
| shikashiz0xde72…0d26 | Yes | 121 | 41.3¢ | $63 | — |
| 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | 80 | 80.3¢ | $38 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 72 | 26.0¢ | $37 | — |
| tacor0x033b…5fd4 | Yes | 70 | 20.2¢ | $36 | Losing−$4.88 per $100 · 202 bets |
| alamedamemola0x037b…a36f | Yes | 50 | 7.0¢ | $26 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 50 | 67.6¢ | $24 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| 0xd10a…b9cd | No | 40 | 75.0¢ | $19 | — |
| 0x0174…95b0 | Yes | 29 | 35.9¢ | $15 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 24 | 81.0¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| just-bettor0xa742…9856 | Yes | 20 | 54.0¢ | $10 | — |
| cloverpmq20xbb10…523d | Yes | 20 | 54.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xe8c6…f7f6 | Yes | 20 | 54.5¢ | $10 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 19 | 38.5¢ | $10 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 17 | 44.9¢ | $9 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| onyxt0x9de3…b489 | Yes | 17 | 28.8¢ | $9 | — |
| 67420x8921…5ca8 | Yes | 15 | 25.8¢ | $8 | — |
| isnE4ZgjkP3nxh0xdb9c…483d | Yes | 7 | 26.8¢ | $4 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 7 | 52.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Gandoron0x4e4b…88ce | Yes | 6 | 36.9¢ | $3 | — |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | No | 6 | 67.8¢ | $3 | — |
| BattleOrders0xb229…dbad | Yes | 5 | 27.1¢ | $3 | — |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | Yes | 4 | 11.4¢ | $2 | — |
| Lordofebola0x1aac…1df6 | Yes | 1 | 10.4¢ | $1 | — |
| hih9990xd2fe…25d6 | Yes | 1 | 23.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | 0 | 49.3¢ | $0 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 0 | 27.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 88.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
1 account bets both sides equally · 20 shares each side · Show
|
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 99 events · $6.03M in play