↓ $45

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of Anthropic's latest Claude Fable model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. §2Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
3. §3Anthropic's latest Claude Fable model means the model with the highest version number among models by Anthropic explicitly named Fable, such as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1, that have a standard output token price listed on Anthropic's official API pricing page.
4. §4If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies.
5. §5Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify.
6. §6The relevant price is the “Base tokens” output price on Anthropic’s official API pricing page for default global inference, at the rate applicable to requests that do not trigger a long-context surcharge.
7. Prices for batch, fast mode, cached, or US-only inference and other data-residency variants will not be considered.