1.5–1.8T

Decided by

Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.§1

No IPO

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".§2

Exact midpoint

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket.§5

Trading interruption

If trading on the first day is interrupted (e.g., circuit breaker or half-day), the market resolves by the abbreviated session's official closing price.§8

No closing price

If no official closing price is published, the market resolves by the next trading day with an official closing price, treated as the first day of trading.§9

Counted

The number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.§4

Source

The primary exchange's official listing page; if the figure is not displayed, another reliable source.§6

Closes

Jan 1, 2028 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.

• 1.8T+ 82.5¢
• 1.5–1.8T 7.4¢
• 1.2–1.5T 2.6¢
• No IPO by December 31, 2027 2.4¢
• <0.6T 1.1¢
• 0.9–1.2T 0.4¢
• 0.6–0.9T 0.3¢

These 7 outcomes add up to 96.7¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.

How these markets fit together

Exactly one of this event's 7 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to 96.7¢ right now.