No IPO before 2028

Decided by

The calendar month (ET) in which Anthropic's IPO occurs, based on the month shares first list and trade.§1

SPAC or merger

If Anthropic goes public via merger, acquisition or absorption by an already public entity, including a SPAC, the market resolves "No IPO before 2028".§4

No IPO by deadline

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves "No IPO before 2028".§5

Filings not enough

Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO do not suffice; the market resolves after public trading has begun.§6

Direct listing

An IPO includes shares becoming listed and open for trading via a traditional initial public offering or a direct listing.§3

Counted

The resolving month is the calendar month (ET) containing the first day Anthropic shares are listed and open for regular-way trading.§2

Source

Information from the primary exchange.§7

Closes

Jan 1, 2028 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

How these markets fit together

Exactly one of this event's 16 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to 96¢ right now.