US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Decided by

The market resolves "No" if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise "Yes."§1

Intercepted munitions

A munition intercepted or destroyed before impact is not a qualifying military action.§16

Debris on Iran

Debris, fragments or wreckage from intercepted munitions landing on Iran is not a military action, regardless of damage.§17

Conflicting reports

If reports conflict, the market stays open until the earlier of consensus or 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from first credible evidence.§22

Counted

A qualifying action is a US-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran.§3

Source

Official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries, and a consensus of credible reporting.§26

Closes

Nov 4, 2026 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.