US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? · Polyray
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US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
Chance of Yes
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Jan 1
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Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?”.
§1This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
§2Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
§3A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US.
§4Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target.
§5An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US).
§6A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance).
§7To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:25 UTC. Not financial advice.
§8Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
§9"Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai).
§10Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
§11The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
§12The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies.
§13An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
§14The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company.
§15However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The market resolves Yes if the US federal government takes a formal action that generally removes US public access to a major Chinese AI model by Dec 31,…§1
Stated purpose irrelevant
An action qualifies regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target.§4
Indirect action counts
An action aimed at others qualifies if it in effect causes a general US removal of public access to the model.§5
Limited exceptions okay
A general removal qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations, like whitelisted firms or cleared individuals.§6
Not yet effective
An action enacted or issued but not yet having effected the removal by the resolution date does not qualify.§13
Counted
A general removal across ordinary public channels in the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient.§7
Source
Official information and announcements from the US government and the relevant AI company; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.§14
Closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.