Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 20:40 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wickier0x1cc1…b8df | No | 5,996 | 77.0¢ | $5.01K | Proven+$18.22 per $100 · 1,097 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 631 | 82.7¢ | $527 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| singularityman0x8797…bbbe | Yes | 3,025 | 11.9¢ | $499 | Proven+$17.46 per $100 · 571 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 500 | 86.0¢ | $418 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate0x7365…64da | Yes | 2,516 | 15.9¢ | $415 | Proven+$13.02 per $100 · 1,204 bets |
| Hakei.0x97ea…3363 | No | 427 | 87.7¢ | $356 | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 2,040 bets |
| Optimus-0xd5b9…e44e | No | 400 | 77.0¢ | $334 | Proven+$7.75 per $100 · 3,042 bets |
| abze0x8c0d…9d95 | No | 400 | 77.5¢ | $334 | New57 settled bets |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | No | 250 | 70.0¢ | $209 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| mangaloes0xa043…3e9e | Yes | 1,156 | 11.4¢ | $191 | — |
| melonmanm0x0787…0ca3 | No | 203 | 84.0¢ | $170 | Proven+$7.03 per $100 · 1,581 bets |
| Dapsy0x73d2…f9b7 | No | 200 | 84.0¢ | $167 | — |
| 0x7baf…1eda | No | 200 | 85.9¢ | $167 | — |
| IbnKhaldun0xa4bc…026c | No | 200 | 83.6¢ | $167 | Positive+$2.23 per $100 · 341 bets |
| iraa30xad60…97f4 | No | 197 | 80.2¢ | $164 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 259 bets |
| johnny2k0x4b1b…62c1 | Yes | 689 | 18.9¢ | $114 | — |
| McBet0x0766…73f4 | No | 118 | 85.0¢ | $99 | — |
| trerira0x18ab…bae4 | No | 100 | 78.0¢ | $84 | Positive+$1.77 per $100 · 179 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 100 | 87.6¢ | $84 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| 0xad6f…deec | No | 100 | 84.0¢ | $84 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 100 | 79.7¢ | $84 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| momo5130xcdf8…b8ea | No | 100 | 85.5¢ | $84 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 704 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 97 | 84.0¢ | $81 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 124,233+ bets · updating |
| pop0x6404…f250 | Yes | 450 | 27.0¢ | $74 | Proven+$2.06 per $100 · 351 bets |
| 0xc403…546f | Yes | 425 | 12.2¢ | $70 | — |
| piyasayapici0x69cd…d48d | Yes | 414 | 21.0¢ | $68 | Losing−$7.20 per $100 · 108 bets |
| memorymaker20490x9259…c2d3 | No | 70 | 84.5¢ | $58 | — |
| rocky420030x2e62…b22e | No | 65 | 80.0¢ | $55 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 10,669 bets |
| 0x940b…368a | Yes | 313 | 17.2¢ | $52 | — |
| kirby260xa0d3…5b5e | No | 57 | 80.6¢ | $48 | Losing−$6.53 per $100 · 3,226 bets |
| actingreluctant70xae93…103f | No | 50 | 87.2¢ | $42 | — |
| kakakax0x4ce9…520b | Yes | 233 | 24.0¢ | $38 | — |
| 0x96bf…403e | No | 45 | 84.0¢ | $38 | — |
| whumpa0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | 208 | 22.1¢ | $34 | — |
| furui0xac45…e6b6 | No | 36 | 78.7¢ | $30 | — |
| robert-mukhametov0x0e6b…3a4c | Yes | 169 | 15.5¢ | $28 | Break-even+$0.02 per $100 · 2,006 bets |
| data-sync0x21ad…10d2 | No | 33 | 80.6¢ | $27 | New43 settled bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 158 | 18.6¢ | $26 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0xda0f…2a19 | No | 30 | 79.4¢ | $25 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 143 | 7.0¢ | $24 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,065 bets |
| alphatango20x7770…518d | No | 25 | 79.7¢ | $21 | — |
| LS-ship0xb141…aa3b | No | 20 | 87.0¢ | $17 | — |
| 58f4dhg1f854h0x0407…bcfd | No | 20 | 85.0¢ | $17 | — |
| dfjjidfgn0x236e…fe7f | No | 20 | 85.0¢ | $17 | — |
| stasssss0x256c…693b | No | 20 | 85.0¢ | $17 | — |
| 6dfg165fdg0x3d2f…b741 | No | 20 | 85.0¢ | $17 | — |
| d56fg165df1g0x4a68…1e7a | No | 20 | 85.0¢ | $17 | — |
| 5414100x608f…9065 | No | 20 | 85.0¢ | $17 | — |
| fd54g15fdg410x6118…d31d | No | 20 | 85.0¢ | $17 | — |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb90x6891…6bb9 | No | 20 | 84.0¢ | $17 | — |
| artisresistance0x91d7…5cf7 | No | 20 | 76.7¢ | $17 | — |
| sd65af15s6d0xbed5…4ea8 | No | 20 | 85.0¢ | $17 | — |
| Relaccsed0xa6b7…d5f3 | Yes | 100 | 24.0¢ | $17 | — |
| PolyPretzel240x02f0…ab20 | Yes | 100 | 30.8¢ | $17 | — |
| MoreDread0xc286…e86e | Yes | 100 | 25.0¢ | $17 | — |
| Banditoes0xe7fe…24e5 | Yes | 100 | 16.0¢ | $17 | — |
| Geromi0x8e8d…5a27 | Yes | 99 | 13.0¢ | $16 | — |
| reng5990x5d62…e937 | No | 19 | 79.7¢ | $16 | — |
| wherewindsmeet160xb36a…ee04 | Yes | 74 | 27.8¢ | $12 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | No | 13 | 85.5¢ | $11 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| OOOOOO-5130xbec0…4b37 | No | 13 | 77.7¢ | $11 | — |
| WhiteFoxCapital10x34ed…9948 | No | 12 | 88.4¢ | $10 | — |
| PolyEGG0x60a8…7d37 | No | 11 | 88.0¢ | $9 | — |
| bastyan0x246b…f037 | Yes | 52 | 29.8¢ | $9 | — |
| Edi120xc031…2c43 | No | 10 | 75.8¢ | $8 | — |
| metaend0x465c…a2a6 | Yes | 50 | 30.8¢ | $8 | — |
| wert40x46f7…ded2 | Yes | 50 | 20.6¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 8,515 bets |
| 0x5437…895a | No | 9 | 79.5¢ | $8 | — |
| qcp70x7875…0dfb | No | 8 | 78.0¢ | $7 | — |
| MagoCazador3690x5f01…2da3 | Yes | 38 | 26.8¢ | $6 | — |
| EndofBeginning880x7828…381b | No | 7 | 84.0¢ | $6 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 38 | 15.5¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| xyxycy0x0345…4519 | Yes | 35 | 8.8¢ | $6 | — |
| uniloktij0xf13f…31cb | Yes | 32 | 12.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Puhua0xfb5b…2b45 | No | 6 | 90.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | Yes | 30 | 5.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| shishkebap0xa41b…2d30 | Yes | 30 | 22.0¢ | $5 | — |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | Yes | 30 | 18.0¢ | $5 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 28 | 15.5¢ | $5 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| kurapalli0x5108…22c3 | Yes | 27 | 26.8¢ | $4 | — |
| zhuo1an90xeff3…4e66 | No | 5 | 75.8¢ | $4 | New70 settled bets |
| parameter10xae91…0f69 | Yes | 25 | 20.6¢ | $4 | — |
| TayfunK0xaa66…73a8 | Yes | 22 | 22.0¢ | $4 | — |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | 21 | 22.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 16 | 16.5¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,956 bets |
| Shekel0x3e56…35d5 | Yes | 15 | 10.0¢ | $3 | — |
| uchiha.itachi0x216e…9ac8 | Yes | 15 | 8.7¢ | $2 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 10 | 13.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xea4b…24aa | Yes | 9 | 11.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4613…3435 | Yes | 8 | 26.8¢ | $1 | — |
| Oslnl0xfbd2…61f1 | Yes | 7 | 24.7¢ | $1 | — |
| aseoslon0xfd8a…f8e2 | Yes | 7 | 24.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x17cd…1455 | Yes | 7 | 29.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa39f…fbdb | Yes | 5 | 6.0¢ | $1 | — |
| badmedicine0x02d6…796d | Yes | 5 | 22.7¢ | $1 | — |
| nonc0xf804…d2b7 | Yes | 4 | 23.7¢ | $1 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 1 | 16.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 1 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 79fsdfs0x2564…f258 | Yes | 0 | 17.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.85 per $100 · 2,461 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 19.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.08M in play