Market · 21 of 22 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:42 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elowen-Gotobed0x4c86…6f1b | No | 1,350 | 99.8¢ | $1.35K | — |
| clggzz0x94c6…7a14 | No | 202 | 99.7¢ | $202 | — |
| ghfjhgfkh0x3e0b…88a9 | No | 118 | 99.8¢ | $118 | — |
| cgkm0500fju0xa530…87cf | No | 115 | 99.8¢ | $115 | — |
| gnhfghnf0x87cc…1201 | No | 114 | 99.8¢ | $114 | — |
| bxftjhxr0xb4d6…e6dc | No | 111 | 99.8¢ | $111 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 100 | 99.8¢ | $100 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,452 bets |
| hbulfhu0x4de2…8964 | No | 96 | 99.8¢ | $96 | — |
| hyfruyf0x7bb0…b5c6 | No | 93 | 99.8¢ | $93 | — |
| bsnthst0x0876…0f53 | No | 82 | 99.8¢ | $82 | — |
| cukutk0xd9a5…a6cf | No | 51 | 99.8¢ | $51 | — |
| vygilfyil0x53c5…f579 | No | 38 | 99.8¢ | $38 | — |
| fhd43530xe8ce…a8b2 | No | 21 | 99.8¢ | $21 | — |
| sdf12v0x0c41…ba1c | No | 21 | 99.8¢ | $21 | — |
| fghbdf1230x353a…e386 | No | 21 | 99.8¢ | $21 | — |
| fdgdd20x4ffb…3054 | No | 21 | 99.8¢ | $21 | — |
| zipps90xe2aa…f58d | No | 20 | 99.8¢ | $20 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | No | 13 | 99.8¢ | $13 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 11,337 | 3.9¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 10,137 | 0.8¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 4,037 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 6,781 | 0.2¢ | $3 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| mktestmm0x5904…940f | No | 3 | 99.9¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x2ef2…7f72 | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $3 | — |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.2¢ | $2 | — |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 4,405 | 3.9¢ | $2 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 2,073 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 2,000 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 2,000 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.67 per $100 · 2,990 bets |
| LuckyMANNN0x59a1…a8d1 | Yes | 1,572 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| roadto10kandthen100k0xe9ec…8756 | Yes | 1,001 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 1,000 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Greedtookover0x3fcc…5c9b | Yes | 530 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Melao0x48a3…bfec | Yes | 520 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | Yes | 509 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 500 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| TP19950xc575…38fd | Yes | 500 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 500 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| Certifiedcracked0x0b57…eccc | Yes | 371 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Roadto1Billion0x60b0…4a62 | Yes | 333 | 0.3¢ | $0 | New59 settled bets |
| oboltusovao0x4a67…65c8 | Yes | 310 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 300 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| bibbi0x5312…9e9b | Yes | 300 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 289 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| coolibin0x55c1…7db6 | Yes | 200 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$29.26 per $100 · 245 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 174 | 3.7¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 170 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 166 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.63 per $100 · 123,481+ bets · updating |
| 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-07171593452560x75cb…1556 | Yes | 150 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$81.10 per $100 · 22,268 bets |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 137 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| 0xa986…30f6 | Yes | 120 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Demet3r0x40e6…459f | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Qatalyst0x65f7…86dd | Yes | 100 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 82 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.76 per $100 · 71,440+ bets · updating |
| TheGreatBeta0xf322…ebf9 | Yes | 63 | 2.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 50 | 3.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| .Menthe0x9a94…d5f9 | Yes | 50 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 23 | 4.5¢ | $0 | — |
| VictorLudorum0x090a…0fa6 | Yes | 16 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.49 per $100 · 22,277 bets |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 10 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| 0x827d…c558 | Yes | 10 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| babyalgo0x0a3a…e990 | Yes | 10 | 2.1¢ | $0 | — |
| TENETENET0x3329…43a6 | Yes | 10 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$874.76 per $100 · 26,465 bets |
| bjprolo0x46b3…d3de | Yes | 10 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$503.23 per $100 · 49,800+ bets · updating |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | Yes | 10 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | Yes | 10 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| triklozoid0xeab7…b389 | Yes | 10 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$2630.36 per $100 · 34,840 bets |
| 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | 6 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| haraldNine0xed3f…a9e4 | Yes | 0 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.