Market · 18 of 18 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 14, 2026, 07:31 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 546tybc0x0406…0ed5 | No | 44 | 99.9¢ | $44 | — |
| nczafegdf0x49a5…9203 | No | 43 | 99.9¢ | $43 | — |
| 64654khgjg0xc31c…e921 | No | 30 | 99.5¢ | $30 | — |
| rrtazxbf7sdh60x48e3…fa90 | No | 30 | 99.8¢ | $30 | — |
| mmxegffds60x53ec…80a8 | No | 21 | 99.9¢ | $21 | — |
| papala0x96f2…8d64 | No | 20 | 99.9¢ | $20 | — |
| 7575739798780x9d10…c2e0 | No | 13 | 99.9¢ | $13 | — |
| lgffsdfdd0x7112…b441 | No | 12 | 99.8¢ | $12 | — |
| opujyj0xce82…b55d | No | 8 | 99.9¢ | $8 | — |
| kgfgt0xc214…934d | No | 7 | 99.4¢ | $7 | — |
| yghf7gfh0x0ce0…b464 | No | 6 | 99.6¢ | $6 | — |
| 654YTH0xfb05…0f25 | No | 6 | 99.6¢ | $6 | — |
| DFHG40x15eb…980d | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| DFBVE0x1c50…b4c7 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x2bcc…a218 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| DFERT40x5862…792a | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| D43T0x87ec…866f | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| oppppop0x9ee7…e901 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| IOPOL0xa81b…9d44 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| GFJHTR0xc4eb…3be6 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xd6aa…fc15 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| DDR530xd89e…46f8 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| SVXC0xebc0…79d1 | No | 5 | 99.9¢ | $5 | — |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 8,436 | 0.2¢ | $4 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 6,045 | 3.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.20 per $100 · 2,236 bets |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 5,728 | 0.1¢ | $3 | — |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 5,405 | 3.9¢ | $3 | — |
| LordYeah0xfd07…6bb7 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $3 | — |
| Lijiang110x6cca…65ca | No | 2 | 99.8¢ | $2 | — |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 4,042 bets |
| ChunkyMonky0x8f66…b986 | Yes | 3,400 | 0.1¢ | $2 | — |
| Sugarina0x8288…5519 | Yes | 3,000 | 2.9¢ | $2 | — |
| Rizh0x9255…6e3b | Yes | 3,000 | 0.6¢ | $2 | — |
| orifcontex0xa002…e840 | Yes | 2,680 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| grsdce0x016d…9e16 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 2,036 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 2,000 | 2.0¢ | $1 | New94 settled bets |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 2,000 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.74 per $100 · 2,996 bets |
| Fablurou0x3256…830c | Yes | 1,434 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x13e4…d532 | Yes | 1,243 | 0.6¢ | $1 | — |
| hirichzhou0x71f7…2e2e | Yes | 1,179 | 5.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 1,096 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.34 per $100 · 7,296 bets |
| Roadto1Billion0x60b0…4a62 | Yes | 1,043 | 0.3¢ | $1 | New61 settled bets |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 1,032 | 5.4¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 5,153 bets |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | Yes | 1,022 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.44 per $100 · 1,112 bets |
| MailAJ-Long-Term0xda4d…c8ee | Yes | 1,020 | 0.4¢ | $1 | — |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.01 per $100 · 14,000 bets |
| Owninimicus00xa2f0…3206 | Yes | 1,000 | 1.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 1,000 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Brotherinchrist0x6be9…3493 | Yes | 777 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 700 | 3.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.03 per $100 · 8,527 bets |
| Boycrrypt0x7b3b…6453 | Yes | 605 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Melao0x48a3…bfec | Yes | 520 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x544e…86dc | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 1,612 bets |
| AndreaPirlo0x09b4…e56d | Yes | 460 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.23 per $100 · 4,921 bets |
| 212octopus0xbf8e…2f94 | Yes | 400 | 2.8¢ | $0 | — |
| northdrawer0xfd55…f905 | Yes | 342 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 42,210+ bets · updating |
| saragus0xf4d5…66e1 | Yes | 338 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| oboltusovao0x4a67…65c8 | Yes | 310 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 300 | 2.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.24 per $100 · 1,384 bets |
| Qatalyst0x65f7…86dd | Yes | 300 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 289 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,377 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 260 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 125,561+ bets · updating |
| InfiniiteHorizon0x0431…1af9 | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| CrysttalCasscade0x0d3d…1880 | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| AzuureSerenity0x20ed…223e | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| flyh1gher0x332e…0ae6 | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| badpiterburg0x3d38…d4f1 | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| s0lar1st0x4590…932e | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| C0ssmicVoyager0x4c78…6818 | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Electric4Each0x67a6…04e8 | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| lukecryptowalker0x9024…8ea4 | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| richalanforlife0x9414…8947 | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9fee…d292 | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| harv3ster0xd06b…823a | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 92 overlapping windows · 11 events · $1.03M in play
Exactly one of this event's 18 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.