Market · 4 of 22 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:04 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 9,330 | 4.4¢ | $1.26K | Losing−$1.09 per $100 · 2,218 bets |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 5,405 | 3.9¢ | $732 | — |
| 0x2ef2…7f72 | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $678 | — |
| sebyastiens0xbc62…4f5e | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $678 | — |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $542 | Break-even+$0.76 per $100 · 4,032 bets |
| TweetPulse.Live0xbbdc…5d81 | Yes | 3,950 | 4.0¢ | $535 | — |
| LuckyMANNN0x59a1…a8d1 | Yes | 2,724 | 3.8¢ | $369 | — |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 2,651 | 5.4¢ | $359 | — |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 2,546 | 3.8¢ | $345 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 2,013 | 3.9¢ | $273 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 7,262 bets |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 1,980 | 3.4¢ | $268 | — |
| BernandoNaty0xfab3…dee0 | No | 250 | 90.4¢ | $216 | — |
| hirichzhou0x71f7…2e2e | Yes | 1,502 | 4.0¢ | $203 | — |
| plymbus0xbbb3…037d | Yes | 1,428 | 11.8¢ | $193 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 1,000 | 3.9¢ | $136 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 1,000 | 2.0¢ | $136 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | Yes | 959 | 9.3¢ | $130 | — |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | Yes | 842 | 9.8¢ | $114 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 6,842 bets |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 125 | 91.4¢ | $108 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 25,840 bets |
| kakdelaa0x2747…fa5a | No | 121 | 90.6¢ | $105 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 120 | 95.6¢ | $104 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,170 bets |
| saragus0xf4d5…66e1 | Yes | 665 | 10.1¢ | $90 | — |
| jooker20260x276a…d445 | No | 100 | 97.1¢ | $86 | — |
| TP19950xc575…38fd | Yes | 500 | 4.0¢ | $68 | — |
| rocky420080x79dc…ca77 | No | 77 | 87.3¢ | $67 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| azimutp0xc793…02a9 | Yes | 400 | 11.2¢ | $54 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 300 | 2.0¢ | $41 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 289 | 3.8¢ | $39 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,254 bets |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | Yes | 245 | 10.0¢ | $33 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 177 | 3.8¢ | $24 | — |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 170 | 2.0¢ | $23 | — |
| LabEma0x1d7c…ef17 | No | 24 | 91.1¢ | $21 | — |
| edgewarehouse0x7eeb…b6bd | No | 19 | 90.2¢ | $17 | — |
| 0xa986…30f6 | Yes | 118 | 10.2¢ | $16 | — |
| pendulum02060x98d6…51dc | Yes | 106 | 10.0¢ | $14 | — |
| justwant50xbc13…5578 | Yes | 100 | 4.0¢ | $14 | — |
| Demet3r0x40e6…459f | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $14 | — |
| b3t4t35t0xab18…467d | Yes | 100 | 14.2¢ | $14 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 100 | 3.8¢ | $14 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 8,496 bets |
| rockat0x699b…0296 | Yes | 94 | 10.0¢ | $13 | — |
| MarsBABY0xeb6d…2294 | Yes | 88 | 10.1¢ | $12 | — |
| Balfang0x58b9…e3ca | Yes | 84 | 3.6¢ | $11 | — |
| jargon06060xf61f…1cf3 | Yes | 73 | 10.4¢ | $10 | — |
| Day4270x5e54…3d9b | Yes | 62 | 10.8¢ | $8 | — |
| number250x0660…0ea7 | No | 9 | 89.7¢ | $8 | — |
| JustThink0x3958…938f | Yes | 56 | 11.4¢ | $8 | — |
| bqy03010xbcf5…56a1 | Yes | 52 | 8.4¢ | $7 | — |
| Qatalyst0x65f7…86dd | Yes | 50 | 3.8¢ | $7 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 50 | 3.7¢ | $7 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| bbynepo0x37b6…661f | Yes | 49 | 10.8¢ | $7 | — |
| wljn001110xc14f…0ee1 | Yes | 45 | 14.0¢ | $6 | — |
| cohorts0xbb5a…1537 | Yes | 42 | 8.4¢ | $6 | — |
| Cocer0xc882…9cb2 | Yes | 29 | 10.8¢ | $4 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 26 | 3.8¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 4 | 88.3¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| LLLivesky0x21ca…450a | Yes | 24 | 11.6¢ | $3 | — |
| WanderingPanda0x74ff…be5b | Yes | 21 | 12.7¢ | $3 | — |
| pried0x339d…06da | Yes | 20 | 10.4¢ | $3 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 19 | 4.0¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xc4f2…5c4d | Yes | 19 | 10.8¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x546a…1988 | No | 2 | 90.6¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xcd0f…2154 | Yes | 10 | 12.9¢ | $1 | — |
| VictorLudorum0x090a…0fa6 | No | 1 | 87.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.47 per $100 · 22,145 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 0 | 90.6¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.