Market · 2 of 22 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:34 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 5,157 | 4.3¢ | $980 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| 0x2ef2…7f72 | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $950 | — |
| sebyastiens0xbc62…4f5e | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $950 | — |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 4,289 | 3.9¢ | $815 | — |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $760 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 4,037 bets |
| TweetPulse.Live0xbbdc…5d81 | Yes | 3,950 | 4.0¢ | $750 | — |
| LuckyMANNN0x59a1…a8d1 | Yes | 3,820 | 7.4¢ | $726 | — |
| kakdelaa0x2747…fa5a | Yes | 3,032 | 17.2¢ | $576 | — |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | No | 623 | 85.4¢ | $505 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 6,847 bets |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 2,639 | 4.0¢ | $501 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 2,606 | 6.9¢ | $495 | Losing−$6.67 per $100 · 2,990 bets |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 2,365 | 4.2¢ | $449 | — |
| blisni0x891c…e455 | No | 502 | 83.0¢ | $406 | — |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 2,000 | 2.0¢ | $380 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | No | 402 | 87.1¢ | $325 | — |
| jfefgsgsw0x0b4e…f5e1 | No | 363 | 88.0¢ | $294 | — |
| hirichzhou0x71f7…2e2e | Yes | 1,299 | 4.0¢ | $247 | — |
| juanbenquet0xf41c…43a6 | Yes | 1,163 | 13.2¢ | $221 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 1,000 | 3.9¢ | $190 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 1,000 | 2.0¢ | $190 | — |
| exboyfriendjustsentit0x7374…38ff | Yes | 982 | 16.6¢ | $187 | — |
| rocky420080x79dc…ca77 | No | 202 | 85.1¢ | $164 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| ProsperIntelligence0x514b…6931 | Yes | 553 | 17.3¢ | $105 | — |
| zalozhen0x186c…1d32 | Yes | 550 | 15.6¢ | $105 | — |
| Melao0x48a3…bfec | Yes | 520 | 21.0¢ | $99 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 120 | 78.9¢ | $97 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,452 bets |
| TP19950xc575…38fd | Yes | 500 | 4.0¢ | $95 | — |
| hazardlights0x7b90…c1af | Yes | 460 | 12.5¢ | $87 | — |
| Tagan10x9c29…8c43 | Yes | 417 | 12.5¢ | $79 | — |
| GreyWall0xac8d…4ebf | Yes | 390 | 13.6¢ | $74 | — |
| sfdf780x736c…a3c9 | Yes | 385 | 13.6¢ | $73 | — |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 384 | 9.6¢ | $73 | — |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | No | 82 | 84.2¢ | $67 | — |
| MochaMocha0xa714…ab88 | Yes | 347 | 17.5¢ | $66 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 300 | 2.0¢ | $57 | — |
| TaigerTeam0xd928…23ca | Yes | 300 | 22.9¢ | $57 | — |
| Rizh0x9255…6e3b | Yes | 295 | 17.3¢ | $56 | — |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 279 | 7.9¢ | $53 | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 6,737 bets |
| 0xcd0f…2154 | No | 60 | 85.2¢ | $49 | — |
| saragus0xf4d5…66e1 | Yes | 247 | 14.0¢ | $47 | — |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | No | 55 | 82.3¢ | $45 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 1,838 bets |
| cedriss0xe086…0450 | No | 50 | 92.8¢ | $41 | — |
| Qatalyst0x65f7…86dd | Yes | 200 | 13.2¢ | $38 | — |
| Prrrl0xc55f…9475 | Yes | 200 | 12.0¢ | $38 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 182 | 10.0¢ | $35 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 170 | 2.0¢ | $32 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 166 | 3.8¢ | $32 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| bbynepo0x37b6…661f | Yes | 156 | 8.4¢ | $30 | — |
| IronByte0x9484…a173 | Yes | 153 | 14.7¢ | $29 | — |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | Yes | 139 | 15.0¢ | $26 | Losing−$5.46 per $100 · 31,074 bets |
| lopezsusan0xf0c9…bc80 | No | 27 | 88.5¢ | $22 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 105 | 10.0¢ | $20 | Losing−$2.63 per $100 · 123,481+ bets · updating |
| justwant50xbc13…5578 | Yes | 100 | 4.0¢ | $19 | — |
| owla0x0517…d513 | Yes | 100 | 15.0¢ | $19 | — |
| fcxs9990x331f…923d | Yes | 100 | 22.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Demet3r0x40e6…459f | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Balfang0x58b9…e3ca | Yes | 100 | 12.0¢ | $19 | — |
| 0x9901…5815 | Yes | 100 | 15.6¢ | $19 | — |
| number250x0660…0ea7 | No | 23 | 80.9¢ | $19 | — |
| rockat0x699b…0296 | Yes | 92 | 14.0¢ | $17 | — |
| MarsBABY0xeb6d…2294 | Yes | 86 | 14.3¢ | $16 | — |
| Jpinedo0x926c…7155 | No | 20 | 82.0¢ | $16 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 58 | 17.0¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 81.0¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,368 bets |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 10 | 83.0¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.06 per $100 · 4,881 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 81.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$2.63 per $100 · 3,025 bets |
| amy8880xc3cf…51d2 | No | 10 | 87.0¢ | $8 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 42 | 3.8¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 8 | 82.9¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
| edgewarehouse0x7eeb…b6bd | No | 6 | 91.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Adam11110x72b5…8b54 | No | 5 | 84.7¢ | $4 | — |
| belsand20x8845…360e | No | 5 | 85.0¢ | $4 | — |
| WanderingPanda0x74ff…be5b | No | 3 | 83.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x546a…1988 | No | 2 | 84.7¢ | $2 | Losing−$6.15 per $100 · 42,787+ bets · updating |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 2 | 80.8¢ | $2 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| 0x96e00x96e0…b648 | No | 0 | 85.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 10 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.