Market · 7 of 22 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:49 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houdray0xddd8…e6f7 | No | 462 | 86.6¢ | $445 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 10,176 | 4.4¢ | $371 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| jooker20260x276a…d445 | No | 220 | 91.7¢ | $212 | — |
| 0x2ef2…7f72 | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $183 | — |
| sebyastiens0xbc62…4f5e | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $183 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | No | 160 | 96.5¢ | $155 | — |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 4,202 | 2.8¢ | $153 | — |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $146 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 4,037 bets |
| TweetPulse.Live0xbbdc…5d81 | Yes | 3,950 | 4.0¢ | $144 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 120 | 85.0¢ | $116 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,477 bets |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 3,100 | 3.6¢ | $113 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| SupercubPA180x19a4…fa7a | No | 117 | 87.6¢ | $113 | Break-even−$0.53 per $100 · 417 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 2,904 | 14.5¢ | $106 | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| str-10000xf1de…6329 | No | 104 | 96.2¢ | $100 | — |
| LuckyMANNN0x59a1…a8d1 | Yes | 2,320 | 3.3¢ | $85 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 2,310 | 4.3¢ | $84 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 2,000 | 3.8¢ | $73 | Losing−$6.67 per $100 · 2,990 bets |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 1,974 | 2.0¢ | $72 | — |
| 0x0624…3c1d | No | 55 | 88.4¢ | $53 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 1,000 | 3.9¢ | $37 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 1,000 | 2.0¢ | $37 | — |
| Horialuca0x5e0f…c18c | Yes | 600 | 2.5¢ | $22 | — |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | Yes | 596 | 4.3¢ | $22 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 22 | 95.8¢ | $21 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| JustThink0x3958…938f | No | 21 | 96.4¢ | $20 | New67 settled bets |
| Melao0x48a3…bfec | Yes | 520 | 9.0¢ | $19 | — |
| gordontradedc0x04a2…e16c | Yes | 515 | 2.8¢ | $19 | — |
| 0xcd0f…2154 | No | 19 | 95.0¢ | $18 | — |
| TP19950xc575…38fd | Yes | 500 | 4.0¢ | $18 | — |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | No | 18 | 89.0¢ | $17 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 417 | 0.7¢ | $15 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| Eliasbbb0xf203…cac9 | Yes | 417 | 6.3¢ | $15 | — |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | Yes | 416 | 3.0¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 6,848 bets |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 402 | 4.2¢ | $15 | — |
| bbynepo0x37b6…661f | Yes | 375 | 2.1¢ | $14 | — |
| Fablurou0x3256…830c | Yes | 300 | 4.8¢ | $11 | — |
| TaigerTeam0xd928…23ca | Yes | 300 | 11.5¢ | $11 | — |
| Playpool0xd628…a698 | No | 11 | 92.8¢ | $10 | — |
| rocky420080x79dc…ca77 | Yes | 280 | 2.6¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 86.0¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 7,608 bets |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | No | 10 | 86.0¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 7,353 bets |
| azimutp0xc793…02a9 | Yes | 250 | 4.3¢ | $9 | — |
| viso990xa623…384f | Yes | 222 | 4.7¢ | $8 | — |
| Greedtookover0x3fcc…5c9b | Yes | 220 | 3.6¢ | $8 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 217 | 3.8¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 201 | 0.7¢ | $7 | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 6,737 bets |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 197 | 3.0¢ | $7 | — |
| werden0x0ccf…e9d6 | No | 7 | 97.1¢ | $7 | — |
| edgewarehouse0x7eeb…b6bd | No | 7 | 95.7¢ | $6 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 160 | 2.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xb308…b117 | No | 6 | 85.6¢ | $6 | — |
| pupailupa0x2a9a…10ff | No | 5 | 96.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 675 bets |
| mcsg0x4d3d…5047 | Yes | 127 | 4.4¢ | $5 | — |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 120 | 2.0¢ | $4 | — |
| bibbi0x5312…9e9b | Yes | 114 | 1.1¢ | $4 | — |
| IronByte0x9484…a173 | Yes | 101 | 6.9¢ | $4 | — |
| justwant50xbc13…5578 | Yes | 100 | 4.0¢ | $4 | — |
| owla0x0517…d513 | Yes | 100 | 10.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Demet3r0x40e6…459f | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Balfang0x58b9…e3ca | Yes | 100 | 7.7¢ | $4 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 94 | 6.3¢ | $3 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| Torrentera0xd364…3216 | Yes | 70 | 10.4¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xa986…30f6 | Yes | 67 | 4.8¢ | $2 | — |
| YANIVALTALEV0x7897…c1ce | Yes | 63 | 16.7¢ | $2 | — |
| MarsBABY0xeb6d…2294 | Yes | 60 | 6.2¢ | $2 | — |
| rockat0x699b…0296 | Yes | 60 | 6.1¢ | $2 | — |
| Prrrl0xc55f…9475 | Yes | 59 | 7.2¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x546a…1988 | No | 2 | 87.6¢ | $2 | Losing−$6.15 per $100 · 42,787+ bets · updating |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | Yes | 50 | 12.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| FelicityBright0xda00…61b4 | No | 0 | 92.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.