Market · 17 of 22 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 13:57 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| clggzz0x94c6…7a14 | No | 6,502 | 98.7¢ | $6.49K | — |
| LinabellAccountStolen0xe9ab…fc5f | No | 2,397 | 99.6¢ | $2.39K | — |
| Houdray0xddd8…e6f7 | No | 1,000 | 97.9¢ | $998 | — |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | No | 300 | 99.2¢ | $299 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 6,848 bets |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 155 | 98.4¢ | $155 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 27,486 bets |
| str-10000xf1de…6329 | No | 78 | 98.7¢ | $78 | — |
| 9nodejs0xfb2c…edca | No | 40 | 99.6¢ | $40 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 14,395 | 2.6¢ | $36 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| UN-Sure0x8891…b5fc | No | 30 | 98.6¢ | $30 | — |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 10,778 | 1.0¢ | $27 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 4,037 bets |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | No | 25 | 99.2¢ | $25 | — |
| werden0x0ccf…e9d6 | No | 17 | 99.3¢ | $17 | — |
| 0x2ef2…7f72 | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $13 | — |
| sebyastiens0xbc62…4f5e | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $13 | — |
| bahn-cuon-baby0x5cdc…1f6b | No | 11 | 97.1¢ | $11 | — |
| Brotherinchrist0x6be9…3493 | Yes | 4,196 | 0.5¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 2,940 bets |
| sinziana0xb19e…b8d5 | No | 10 | 99.0¢ | $10 | — |
| mktestmm0x5904…940f | No | 9 | 99.7¢ | $9 | — |
| txp111.0xaa7e…0332 | Yes | 3,000 | 0.4¢ | $8 | — |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | Yes | 2,859 | 0.9¢ | $7 | — |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 2,000 | 2.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 2,000 | 3.8¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.67 per $100 · 2,990 bets |
| LuckyMANNN0x59a1…a8d1 | Yes | 1,820 | 2.0¢ | $5 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 1,700 | 1.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| 0xcd0f…2154 | No | 4 | 96.7¢ | $4 | — |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 1,600 | 0.6¢ | $4 | — |
| gordontradedc0x04a2…e16c | Yes | 1,392 | 1.3¢ | $3 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 1,365 | 3.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 1,334 | 0.2¢ | $3 | — |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 1,023 | 1.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 1,000 | 2.0¢ | $3 | — |
| LyonyaGolubkov0x8fb3…8d69 | Yes | 692 | 1.4¢ | $2 | — |
| Melao0x48a3…bfec | Yes | 520 | 1.0¢ | $1 | — |
| bibbi0x5312…9e9b | Yes | 500 | 0.4¢ | $1 | — |
| TP19950xc575…38fd | Yes | 500 | 4.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x482f…53f7 | Yes | 483 | 1.1¢ | $1 | — |
| aEpTcH7MFw0xe52c…9dcb | Yes | 351 | 0.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Greedtookover0x3fcc…5c9b | Yes | 350 | 1.6¢ | $1 | — |
| oboltusovao0x4a67…65c8 | Yes | 310 | 3.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 300 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Fablurou0x3256…830c | Yes | 300 | 1.1¢ | $1 | — |
| roadto10kandthen100k0xe9ec…8756 | Yes | 300 | 0.9¢ | $1 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 289 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 230 | 3.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.60 per $100 · 123,566 bets |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 177 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 170 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-07171593452560x75cb…1556 | Yes | 150 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$81.10 per $100 · 22,268 bets |
| 0xa986…30f6 | Yes | 120 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| justwant50xbc13…5578 | Yes | 100 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| owla0x0517…d513 | Yes | 100 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Demet3r0x40e6…459f | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| MailAJ-Long-Term0xda4d…c8ee | Yes | 100 | 1.2¢ | $0 | — |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 70 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| Roadto1Billion0x60b0…4a62 | Yes | 70 | 1.6¢ | $0 | New59 settled bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 59 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x9afc…314b | Yes | 52 | 1.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Balfang0x58b9…e3ca | Yes | 50 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Qatalyst0x65f7…86dd | Yes | 50 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 50 | 3.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| Certifiedcracked0x0b57…eccc | Yes | 16 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| babyalgo0x0a3a…e990 | Yes | 10 | 2.1¢ | $0 | — |
| bjprolo0x46b3…d3de | Yes | 10 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$503.23 per $100 · 49,800+ bets · updating |
| 0x96e00x96e0…b648 | Yes | 10 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | 6 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.