Market · 6 of 22 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in October 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:29 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 55 | 89.6¢ | $54 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 54 | 98.3¢ | $53 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| poposd0xf512…0985 | No | 35 | 99.0¢ | $35 | — |
| sange1110x87a9…4bdf | Yes | 2,076 | 9.4¢ | $26 | — |
| mktestmm0x5904…940f | No | 18 | 97.8¢ | $18 | — |
| Panopticon0070x07cf…a9fa | Yes | 1,200 | 2.3¢ | $15 | Proven+$3.68 per $100 · 1,872 bets |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 1,112 | 2.0¢ | $14 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| BlackSugar.0x6d87…4f67 | Yes | 1,105 | 11.0¢ | $14 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 621 | 3.3¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 588 | 1.4¢ | $7 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| EonGlobe0x48f5…c9d3 | No | 6 | 86.6¢ | $6 | — |
| 84sfs0x4b4c…c67d | No | 6 | 86.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 87sdgfds0xec52…a4a4 | No | 6 | 90.0¢ | $5 | — |
| wert40x46f7…ded2 | No | 4 | 85.6¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 8,515 bets |
| defiance-cr0xb84c…e169 | No | 4 | 89.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 265 | 7.2¢ | $3 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| vamnizar0xaf46…8c1d | Yes | 257 | 3.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 227 | 14.5¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 203 | 0.9¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 3,178 bets |
| 73f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0.0x73f4…83a0 | Yes | 169 | 2.0¢ | $2 | — |
| OsvaldoMarianao270xf939…43e1 | Yes | 100 | 9.4¢ | $1 | — |
| himken0x115a…9d44 | Yes | 90 | 3.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.27 per $100 · 2,058 bets |
| 0xccb7…e922 | Yes | 87 | 10.8¢ | $1 | — |
| Iryna2k0x6da8…ec45 | Yes | 77 | 13.6¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.81 per $100 · 862 bets |
| 0x4e72…ffb9 | No | 1 | 91.4¢ | $1 | — |
| justwant50xbc13…5578 | Yes | 51 | 9.4¢ | $1 | — |
| babyalgo0x0a3a…e990 | Yes | 50 | 1.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa775…334e | Yes | 50 | 2.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 42 | 9.1¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,902 bets |
| intelligence980x6090…6dbb | No | 0 | 90.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x7003…7ca4 | Yes | 25 | 8.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Etherapp0x9fac…3e5a | Yes | 22 | 9.4¢ | $0 | — |
| filaretou0x5a77…f859 | Yes | 20 | 1.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.16 per $100 · 727 bets |
| 83afaf0x7b38…b187 | Yes | 20 | 15.7¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 0 | 87.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| 0x10be…aee1 | Yes | 10 | 10.5¢ | $0 | — |
| damirjan0x736e…7101 | Yes | 10 | 10.5¢ | $0 | — |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | Yes | 10 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 10 | 8.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Yoyobinks0x5e6a…97f2 | Yes | 10 | 3.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 5 | 2.4¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | 4 | 14.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 4 | 13.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| 88dfhf0xeed8…679c | Yes | 0 | 14.9¢ | $0 | — |
| shoobadooba180x2d6c…e3f5 | Yes | 0 | 12.0¢ | $0 | — |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 0 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.92 per $100 · 158,499 bets |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | Yes | 0 | 12.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 91 overlapping windows · 10 events · $720K in play
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.