Market · 1 of 10 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:07 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sazzaa0x12ed…c9b4 | Yes | 4,110 | 36.5¢ | $3.68K | — |
| dddtrips0x8565…0c43 | Yes | 3,626 | 42.7¢ | $3.25K | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Yes |
| 3,500 |
| 5.6¢ |
| $3.13K |
| — |
| RickRockRick0x35f3…cfd0 | Yes | 3,000 | 5.6¢ | $2.69K | — |
| Sugarina0x8288…5519 | Yes | 3,000 | 5.6¢ | $2.69K | — |
| amy8880xc3cf…51d2 | Yes | 2,201 | 34.4¢ | $1.97K | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 1,719 | 18.0¢ | $1.54K | Losing−$1.09 per $100 · 2,218 bets |
| PredictionYogi0x6964…ef53 | Yes | 1,453 | 88.7¢ | $1.3K | Break-even+$0.43 per $100 · 4,460 bets |
| Mr-Lucker0xaee7…37fe | Yes | 1,000 | 40.4¢ | $895 | — |
| Kamenshyk220x93fd…7e2f | Yes | 800 | 48.4¢ | $716 | — |
| fishpapav0x9cea…a932 | Yes | 791 | 57.1¢ | $708 | — |
| exp7incher0x29b5…a992 | Yes | 700 | 5.6¢ | $627 | — |
| wakuwaku0x2376…d5b4 | Yes | 648 | 90.1¢ | $580 | — |
| zalozhen0x186c…1d32 | Yes | 628 | 53.4¢ | $562 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 500 | 11.1¢ | $448 | — |
| Feracios0xb816…9e90 | Yes | 500 | 11.1¢ | $448 | — |
| 0x913f…c676 | Yes | 459 | 71.6¢ | $410 | — |
| kegeI0xbdca…bada | Yes | 458 | 10.9¢ | $410 | — |
| 0xe83c…04ce | Yes | 422 | 47.2¢ | $378 | — |
| Mommy0070xdc36…8542 | Yes | 400 | 36.6¢ | $358 | — |
| edgewarehouse0x7eeb…b6bd | Yes | 356 | 19.7¢ | $319 | — |
| 0x90d7…5cb7 | Yes | 350 | 5.6¢ | $313 | — |
| pesw-40xfa50…3327 | Yes | 333 | 74.6¢ | $298 | — |
| NotCopeGotHacked0xb017…e1e3 | Yes | 300 | 5.6¢ | $269 | — |
| Sarths0x811e…265c | Yes | 300 | 88.0¢ | $268 | — |
| pesw-10x18d0…f62c | Yes | 300 | 83.1¢ | $268 | — |
| SupremeGambler0xf2bf…66c7 | Yes | 240 | 11.1¢ | $215 | — |
| froku0x1e3b…e3ba | Yes | 235 | 67.3¢ | $210 | — |
| pesw-30xdff1…f287 | Yes | 197 | 81.2¢ | $176 | — |
| jsjsnxxn0xe122…0b62 | Yes | 176 | 35.9¢ | $157 | — |
| 4ever010xd5f5…0d3d | Yes | 160 | 53.2¢ | $143 | — |
| 0x8f71…719a | Yes | 153 | 85.6¢ | $137 | — |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 152 | 10.3¢ | $136 | — |
| 0x9b4e…128e | Yes | 143 | 88.4¢ | $128 | — |
| 0xb810…8919 | Yes | 136 | 74.5¢ | $122 | — |
| grth0xd51b…20c7 | Yes | 120 | 69.6¢ | $107 | — |
| dukies0xdd68…0261 | Yes | 116 | 75.9¢ | $104 | — |
| zenef30x9645…81ee | Yes | 112 | 9.8¢ | $100 | — |
| edswpang0xd092…342a | Yes | 112 | 91.0¢ | $100 | — |
| Oboltusova0xfb2b…cadf | Yes | 110 | 38.2¢ | $98 | — |
| reefv0x8d2c…465d | Yes | 110 | 44.8¢ | $98 | — |
| ProphecyKing0x8eff…fb57 | Yes | 102 | 50.2¢ | $91 | — |
| Demet3r0x40e6…459f | Yes | 100 | 5.6¢ | $90 | — |
| yixiao880x1287…85ad | Yes | 100 | 51.0¢ | $89 | — |
| misaki0x912d…5f1a | Yes | 100 | 68.0¢ | $89 | — |
| gordontradedc0x04a2…e16c | No | 734 | 12.7¢ | $77 | — |
| ElonSimp0xfbcb…bb5d | No | 511 | 25.8¢ | $54 | — |
| lilith2750x7db0…8c18 | No | 298 | 36.8¢ | $31 | — |
| Poligarch0xb40e…7cc9 | Yes | 35 | 77.2¢ | $31 | Break-even+$0.88 per $100 · 33,871+ bets · updating |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | No | 190 | 35.7¢ | $20 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 168 | 35.3¢ | $18 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,170 bets |
| 0x7787…d002 | No | 165 | 45.8¢ | $17 | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 161 | 12.5¢ | $17 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
| 0xffae…5c98 | No | 153 | 13.5¢ | $16 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | No | 152 | 56.4¢ | $16 | — |
| anon2648110xae34…3a8a | No | 149 | 67.9¢ | $16 | — |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | No | 139 | 10.6¢ | $15 | — |
| JoyL0x0862…9a02 | No | 120 | 24.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0xumbra0x9c1e…b7d3 | No | 115 | 25.9¢ | $12 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 100 | 12.4¢ | $11 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| 0xPoni-Elon0x01a4…4967 | No | 80 | 16.1¢ | $8 | — |
| asd560xda65…e87e | No | 63 | 30.3¢ | $7 | — |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | No | 58 | 18.9¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 6,842 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 54 | 45.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| 0x0a16…1cb2 | No | 50 | 12.5¢ | $5 | — |
| margaretwheeler0x7368…a25b | No | 36 | 61.0¢ | $4 | — |
| WanderingPanda0x74ff…be5b | No | 26 | 23.6¢ | $3 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 25 | 32.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| 0xde3a…7dd1 | No | 23 | 66.6¢ | $2 | — |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | No | 19 | 55.2¢ | $2 | Losing−$4.46 per $100 · 1,422 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 18 | 12.0¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xcd0f…2154 | No | 16 | 53.6¢ | $2 | — |
| Trading970x624c…46aa | No | 16 | 63.2¢ | $2 | — |
| liq20x3423…fe57 | No | 16 | 38.2¢ | $2 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 14 | 43.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,034 bets |
| Staticglasshouse0x6580…96e5 | No | 14 | 73.0¢ | $1 | — |
| sadfsad30x0429…4c74 | No | 10 | 43.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfsadfddd0x0be6…caa6 | No | 10 | 58.5¢ | $1 | — |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | No | 10 | 42.0¢ | $1 | — |
| lll981kd0x33c4…4ad5 | No | 10 | 43.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.22 per $100 · 3,971 bets |
| dddd123s0x3a44…6881 | No | 10 | 43.0¢ | $1 | — |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | No | 10 | 59.0¢ | $1 | — |
| dddd111dd0x568c…29ec | No | 10 | 26.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | No | 10 | 53.4¢ | $1 | — |
| kkadkd1920x5eaf…ea07 | No | 10 | 26.0¢ | $1 | — |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 42.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.83 per $100 · 2,915 bets |
| 0x671f…b191 | No | 10 | 29.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 8dddj0x78cb…c94e | No | 10 | 44.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 3,888 bets |
| aaabbasdfcc0x8b30…876e | No | 10 | 42.0¢ | $1 | — |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | No | 10 | 43.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asdf1asdf1110xac71…f74c | No | 10 | 59.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfsadfccc10xb0da…15b9 | No | 10 | 26.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 45.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ddddd340xc652…8387 | No | 10 | 26.0¢ | $1 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 561 shares each side · Show
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Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 10 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.