Market · 5 of 9 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 13:57 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| upont0xaac2…e8ce | No | 12,000 | 99.5¢ | $12K | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 1,405 bets |
| onekey020xfaf9…f4c4 | No | 4,531 | 99.9¢ | $4.53K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 441 bets |
| beatyesterday0x7789…a280 | No | 557 | 98.4¢ | $557 | Losing−$1.58 per $100 · 1,251 bets |
| elonmuskno10x0a63…06f7 | No | 552 | 99.7¢ | $551 | — |
| shahidali0x331e…458c | No | 150 | 99.9¢ | $150 | — |
| mystery0x323d…781c | No | 100 | 99.9¢ | $100 | Proven+$2.80 per $100 · 680 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 54 | 98.4¢ | $54 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| iliabouchouev0x95dc…4b45 | No | 40 | 99.9¢ | $40 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 16,947 bets |
| black45620x9242…a140 | No | 34 | 98.1¢ | $34 | — |
| underwaterdruid0x73e0…e538 | No | 30 | 99.9¢ | $30 | — |
| seedborgmerlinj0x63a5…7c35 | No | 26 | 99.8¢ | $26 | — |
| mathacec0x3d60…6df2 | No | 25 | 99.0¢ | $25 | — |
| 0x8c57…36f7 | No | 25 | 99.8¢ | $25 | — |
| 0x6eed…c75b | No | 24 | 99.7¢ | $24 | — |
| edgewarehouse0x7eeb…b6bd | No | 24 | 97.1¢ | $24 | — |
| 0x7f45…4ea1 | No | 23 | 99.6¢ | $23 | — |
| 0x10d9…ec9f | No | 20 | 99.7¢ | $20 | — |
| tsklee0x8cef…6b6d | No | 20 | 99.8¢ | $20 | — |
| 123123123asdf0x7189…8c17 | No | 14 | 99.6¢ | $14 | Positive+$1.09 per $100 · 142 bets |
| ugiuho0x1c07…add3 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| yyyooiu0x1ee0…4f92 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| udfhdf0x240c…54a0 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x3c48…1753 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| vbncgn0x9f69…9ee6 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| gfdjh0xf533…dacc | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| tjkjvjk0xd091…3968 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| gsdjkyer0xb04a…4868 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| gdmhhh0xf0f7…6de4 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| fjvh9090xc845…aa83 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| 1ttyfg0xd8d2…93b2 | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xd63a…5b2c | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xb041…0da0 | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| fgdsfd43520x06ff…8bea | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| gkk880x0393…c9b1 | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| qionghui0xc98d…5caf | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| dfghj7870x169a…d4ca | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| dfhsyjd0x20a6…9049 | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x1650…6336 | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x6976…1957 | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| ysdfhjtthjyt0x09c1…af76 | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| dfgiojn0xa15e…0d5a | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| ChansonBalladee0xe129…c478 | No | 11 | 96.0¢ | $11 | — |
| hsgfh5340x8d10…a150 | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| dfiygh0x814c…f956 | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| 56765456s0x5247…474f | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xc215…ef5c | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| ytjcjchj0x944b…8618 | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| kfgnx0xc639…b3dc | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x9cd4…7eac | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| lfjh0x0dc7…1616 | No | 11 | 99.9¢ | $11 | — |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 15,720 | 0.3¢ | $8 | — |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 11,111 | 1.7¢ | $6 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 7,556 | 7.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| welcometowinnercircle0x88b2…e1d1 | Yes | 4,591 | 12.5¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.67 per $100 · 299 bets |
| InsideR50x17f1…0528 | Yes | 4,000 | 1.3¢ | $2 | — |
| Sugarina0x8288…5519 | Yes | 3,000 | 5.6¢ | $2 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 2,100 | 5.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x2032…134d | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 840 | 12.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Mr-Lucker0xaee7…37fe | Yes | 800 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 773 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,713 bets |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 763 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 720 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.26 per $100 · 91,292+ bets · updating |
| exp7incher0x29b5…a992 | Yes | 700 | 5.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Etherapp0x9fac…3e5a | Yes | 540 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Mommy0070xdc36…8542 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 482 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.60 per $100 · 123,566 bets |
| Badekarret0xe343…23fd | Yes | 334 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 302 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | Yes | 300 | 2.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 9,815 bets |
| oboltusovao0x4a67…65c8 | Yes | 300 | 11.1¢ | $0 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 263 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| 0xd17a…3eac | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| mel270x6afe…f266 | Yes | 244 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 244 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,721 bets |
| RickRockRick0x35f3…cfd0 | Yes | 220 | 5.6¢ | $0 | — |
| VictorLudorum0x090a…0fa6 | Yes | 151 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.49 per $100 · 22,277 bets |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | Yes | 150 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x725d…019e | Yes | 140 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$14.66 per $100 · 194 bets |
| 0xfbd8…4027 | Yes | 139 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.13 per $100 · 58,633+ bets · updating |
| 0xf452…8ff9 | Yes | 106 | 4.7¢ | $0 | — |
| liq20x3423…fe57 | Yes | 105 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 100 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb90x6891…6bb9 | Yes | 60 | 1.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Likaseent0x227f…a574 | Yes | 56 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| kaxel780xc1b5…5d85 | Yes | 54 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| akroll0x8bac…35ca | Yes | 52 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Qatalyst0x65f7…86dd | Yes | 50 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd32c…a4c2 | Yes | 50 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.64 per $100 · 3,807 bets |
| MartinPNZ0xe130…4006 | Yes | 50 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x0bdb…baca | Yes | 21 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| whereismymoney0x6d6b…0420 | Yes | 20 | 10.8¢ | $0 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 20 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 15 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 12 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 30,110 bets |
| 0x6fbc…fa10 | Yes | 11 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.87 per $100 · 1,441 bets |
| bjprolo0x46b3…d3de | Yes | 10 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$503.23 per $100 · 49,800+ bets · updating |
| wwder0x3424…5d5e | Yes | 5 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | Yes | 2 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.